TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Virtus.proof Team Falcons, Virtus.pro
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$216,464
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$240,746

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,464 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 190 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9eca…5a59backed Team Falcons74c23,211$17,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,151.9640051.5%206 W · 194 L-6.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Virtus.pro29c14,741$4,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,519.9245750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons75c9,091$6,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,784.822,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd06c…cdafbacked Team Falcons48c8,874$4,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,3001,18643.2%512 W · 674 L+42.2wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Virtus.pro30c7,412$2,219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,193.891,82145%820 W · 1,001 L+33.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Falcons65c7,073$4,577 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,577.351,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Virtus.pro33c7,064$2,335 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,729.221,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d39…6053backed Virtus.pro32c5,686$1,824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,862.141,03647.2%489 W · 547 L+15.3wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2146…d41bbacked Team Falcons49c5,683$2,770 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,770.2889741.5%372 W · 525 L+22.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-2.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc0f5…3d04backed Virtus.pro76c4,380$3,312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,068.6451049%250 W · 260 L-0.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-9.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Virtus.pro31c3,880$1,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,684.941,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Virtus.pro36c3,316$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,109.161,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xef62…cf76backed Virtus.pro64c3,252$2,097 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,155.1843344.8%194 W · 239 L-2.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-14.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3601…44fbbacked Team Falcons59c3,199$1,877 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,877.0516954.4%92 W · 77 L+5.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e62…f6ffbacked Virtus.pro53c2,200$1,166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,03410646.2%49 W · 57 L-0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Virtus.pro33c2,195$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,468.3456548%271 W · 294 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb55…51ddbacked Team Falcons79c2,016$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,599.9335960.4%217 W · 142 L-1.3wins0.00per pick61cpaid-5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Virtus.pro75c2,000$1,507 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.3692056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Team Falcons67c2,000$1,340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,339.9736547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Virtus.pro29c1,750$513 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,237.558744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7600…4478backed Virtus.pro31c1,750$542 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,207.522647.3%107 W · 119 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd161…4cc1backed Virtus.pro49c1,700$825 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$875.0380443.9%353 W · 451 L-1.7wins0.00per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39a7…bcb7backed Virtus.pro35c1,506$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$980.9110949.5%54 W · 55 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Team Falcons8c1,500$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12051544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Virtus.pro25c1,496$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12241242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Virtus.pro37c1,495$553 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$941.82,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Virtus.pro34c1,454$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$953.8861745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Team Falcons69c1,400$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95950769.2%351 W · 156 L+33.7wins+0.07per pick63cpaid+10.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbff7…92fbbacked Virtus.pro52c1,391$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.727143.5%118 W · 153 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7462…3ac3backed Virtus.pro13c1,384$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,204.9934051.5%175 W · 165 L+11.2wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2687…1363backed Virtus.pro46c1,263$585 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$678.135758%207 W · 150 L+26.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Team Falcons63c1,250$782 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$781.847650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8b5…54c4backed Team Falcons46c1,193$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55029240.8%119 W · 173 L+0.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x581f…9d8ebacked Virtus.pro25c1,148$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8619543.2%41 W · 54 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x23cb…80d0backed Virtus.pro45c1,105$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$605.0522853.1%121 W · 107 L+5.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d0a…07c7backed Team Falcons74c1,042$766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$766.029063.3%57 W · 33 L+1.9wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb5b5…205abacked Virtus.pro50c1,007$501 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$505.6931953.9%172 W · 147 L+16.0wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Virtus.pro33c1,000$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6701,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e44…21bcbacked Team Falcons67c963$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.4779859%471 W · 327 L+16.1wins+0.02per pick57cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Virtus.pro45c877.11$397 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$480.2760646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad7f…d0d4backed Virtus.pro9c872.87$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$797.621637.5%6 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+38%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked Virtus.pro25c850.45$214 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$636.5352649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8b4c…1715backed Team Falcons12c833.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8321333.3%71 W · 142 L+12.3wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+64.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xa042…5539backed Virtus.pro50c762.36$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.1217454%94 W · 80 L+7.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c8f…4d12backed Virtus.pro34c756.95$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.6835062.6%219 W · 131 L+44.4wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+26.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Virtus.pro21c700$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55346240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x93bd…bbc5backed Virtus.pro72c659.99$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.853764.4%346 W · 191 L+26.5wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+2.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1bcb…b05abacked Team Falcons58c651.77$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.0338049.2%187 W · 193 L+13.1wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+168.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe3f…0fcfbacked Virtus.pro38c636$239 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$397.2786659.6%516 W · 350 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31d4…a7abbacked Virtus.pro28c632.99$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.3616541.2%68 W · 97 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Virtus.pro36c622.76$226 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$396.3437223.1%86 W · 286 L-38.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Team Falcons61c600$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.7374549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57d5…0bbdbacked Team Falcons62c600$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37253139.5%210 W · 321 L-37.2wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x96ef…cca4backed Virtus.pro32c528.67$168 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.2716242.6%69 W · 93 L-6.2wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe82d…d96bbacked Team Falcons72c522.47$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.87966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick50cpaid+35.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc159…f3c8backed Team Falcons4c520.9$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2019238.5%74 W · 118 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-18.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Virtus.pro34c500.84$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$330.1865647.3%310 W · 346 L-8.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Virtus.pro50c499.99$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.5160251.2%308 W · 294 L+3.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Virtus.pro54c499.99$271 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.6839660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Virtus.pro28c499.98$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.991,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed Virtus.pro44c482.01$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$270.9828549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Team Falcons56c459.77$258 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.8772035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x62a9…3bb6backed Virtus.pro33c451.32$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.3210546.7%49 W · 56 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa62b…0f85backed Team Falcons56c440.18$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.2211742.7%50 W · 67 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Virtus.pro39c431.31$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.891,15447.7%550 W · 604 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-12.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Team Falcons52c399$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.4844645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d8d…9fb0backed Team Falcons28c397.94$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.798622.1%19 W · 67 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-41.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Falcons67c396.52$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.6779959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Team Falcons64c394.08$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.2195342.2%402 W · 551 L-20.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d24…20b3backed Virtus.pro25c393.79$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.8854246.7%253 W · 289 L-2.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Virtus.pro46c387$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.599444.7%42 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Team Falcons60c377.35$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.321,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xccec…1dfcbacked Team Falcons74c361.82$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.758447.6%40 W · 44 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Team Falcons69c359$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$247.7134544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x180c…cd04backed Virtus.pro19c349.99$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.8543738.4%168 W · 269 L-1.8wins0.00per pick39cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x24bb…3e49backed Team Falcons17c321.79$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2465337.2%243 W · 410 L-15.1wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-28.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Team Falcons54c313.26$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.7360552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cab…a8cfbacked Virtus.pro72c304.99$219 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3235370%247 W · 106 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick69cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36d9…c3cabacked Virtus.pro32c300$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20444149.4%218 W · 223 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Virtus.pro29c295.01$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$209.681,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x473f…9892backed Team Falcons52c288.45$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9950053%265 W · 235 L+14.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x65e0…e51dbacked Team Falcons69c288.27$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20019443.3%84 W · 110 L-9.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa623…a4febacked Virtus.pro26c280$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.250749.7%252 W · 255 L+15.3wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf34b…bcb3backed Virtus.pro32c280$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.458356.8%331 W · 252 L+28.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Team Falcons51c263$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.1377256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82dc…5700backed Virtus.pro37c255.26$94 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.8268649.7%341 W · 345 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffc4…b347backed Team Falcons67c250$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.329466%194 W · 100 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8dd4…7401backed Team Falcons21c239.62$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.535430.5%108 W · 246 L-27.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-41.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Virtus.pro36c232.27$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.489749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x89bd…cc95backed Team Falcons50c220$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1103844.7%17 W · 21 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick38cpaid+14.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Team Falcons72c208.33$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15086451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Virtus.pro36c205.28$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.91,28045%576 W · 704 L-12.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-15%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed Virtus.pro38c200$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12437655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25c5…0031backed Team Falcons12c200$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248918%16 W · 73 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-38.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc49b…70c0backed Virtus.pro22c200$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15663032.5%205 W · 425 L+1.4wins0.00per pick32cpaid-22.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Virtus.pro36c190$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.61,06657%608 W · 458 L+52.7wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x48ba…d81dbacked Virtus.pro33c187.97$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.2556343.9%247 W · 316 L-1.9wins0.00per pick44cpaid-10.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7d3…698bbacked Virtus.pro55c180.95$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.9548053.1%255 W · 225 L+25.4wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed Virtus.pro56c178.57$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.5748054%259 W · 221 L+11.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Virtus.pro48c177$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.989938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.