TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Falconsof Team Falcons, Virtus.pro
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$209,390
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$239,149

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $209,390 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 305 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xe16d…5e30backed Team Falcons71c15,716$11,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,543.391,21057.1%691 W · 519 L+44.5wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Team Falcons77c10,056$7,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,331.971,20259.3%713 W · 489 L+64.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+10.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xb234…1c20backed Virtus.pro25c9,000$2,260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,26029042.1%122 W · 168 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b0…329ebacked Team Falcons74c7,264$5,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,914.6480256%449 W · 353 L+22.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+6.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Virtus.pro38c4,586$1,729 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,729.4945750.8%232 W · 225 L+14.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Virtus.pro23c4,005$916 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$916.412,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8479…40dfbacked Team Falcons56c3,963$2,217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,745.8710751.4%55 W · 52 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1c4…bbfbbacked Virtus.pro29c3,477$997 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$996.574158.5%24 W · 17 L+2.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd9d…f409backed Virtus.pro21c3,244$691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.532751.9%14 W · 13 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03f8…d85abacked Virtus.pro54c2,947$1,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6004951%25 W · 24 L+2.0wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Virtus.pro28c2,517$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$704.3458744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb6ce…7a7dbacked Virtus.pro29c2,511$737 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$736.6789749.6%445 W · 452 L+22.4wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x52b7…0aa1backed Virtus.pro29c2,500$725 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72581029.4%238 W · 572 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick32cpaid-10.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5d34…7c8cbacked Virtus.pro28c2,500$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.9914515.2%22 W · 123 L-16.5wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-50.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Team Falcons60c2,424$1,454 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$969.9439660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Virtus.pro36c2,065$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$744.31,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b10…9659backed Team Falcons70c2,000$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60049455.1%272 W · 222 L+6.0wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x69bf…0c5dbacked Virtus.pro29c2,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58036547.7%174 W · 191 L-1.0wins0.00per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Team Falcons61c1,990$1,207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$782.721264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Virtus.pro40c1,966$781 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$780.851,16447.2%549 W · 615 L-29.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Team Falcons46c1,841$839 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,002.043129%9 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.13per pick42cpaid-30.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Virtus.pro44c1,813$799 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$798.8944645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Virtus.pro18c1,774$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.8620740.1%83 W · 124 L-14.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-29.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Virtus.pro43c1,557$664 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$663.8219242.7%82 W · 110 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-20%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4574…273dbacked Virtus.pro19c1,503$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.5812630.2%38 W · 88 L-13.5wins-0.11per pick41cpaid-31.2%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x3ca4…db18backed Team Falcons71c1,490$1,058 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.031060%6 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefee…d2b3backed Team Falcons79c1,429$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$303.6912256.6%69 W · 53 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x80ba…2e78backed Virtus.pro14c1,360$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18688539.7%351 W · 534 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8756…3c83backed Team Falcons49c1,350$661 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$688.993545.7%16 W · 19 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick43cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Team Falcons76c1,342$1,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.1934544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xecbe…42ffbacked Virtus.pro1c1,329$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9416232.7%53 W · 109 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-29.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Virtus.pro31c1,301$407 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$407.281,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x469f…3d4fbacked Virtus.pro42c1,249$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.6923546.8%110 W · 125 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick42cpaid0%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Virtus.pro44c1,121$494 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.155751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Virtus.pro27c1,089$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.7336851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xf1ee…519cbacked Virtus.pro26c1,088$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.7966947.1%315 W · 354 L-10.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7dfd…8d75backed Team Falcons72c1,074$774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.8524251.7%125 W · 117 L+21.0wins+0.09per pick43cpaid+15.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe872…819abacked Virtus.pro29c1,048$304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30422340.4%90 W · 133 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-14.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe110…ade6backed Virtus.pro9c1,044$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$941330.8%4 W · 9 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick40cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdbaf…f5d1backed Virtus.pro27c1,044$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.8835737%132 W · 225 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick40cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Virtus.pro10c1,041$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0971342.5%303 W · 410 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3471…f17ebacked Team Falcons78c1,000$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.071,15547.8%552 W · 603 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-8.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b4a…8060backed Virtus.pro10c1,000$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003514.3%5 W · 30 L-3.7wins-0.10per pick25cpaid-56.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x93bc…8ca3backed Virtus.pro29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29089440.3%360 W · 534 L+1.3wins0.00per pick40cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa664…f849backed Virtus.pro21c999.97$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.9929143.6%127 W · 164 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa35c…a113backed Team Falcons72c969.18$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.1861745.7%282 W · 335 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-7.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ee5…e798backed Virtus.pro5c935.3$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4972035.1%253 W · 467 L-24.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-19.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe5b…7658backed Virtus.pro3c899.99$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.93571.4%25 W · 10 L+3.8wins+0.11per pick61cpaid+5.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2712…306fbacked Virtus.pro7c899.4$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x89ff…a8f2backed Team Falcons72c899.04$647 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.734450%22 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Virtus.pro40c895.68$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36048539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7205…8e0abacked Virtus.pro26c883.03$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.591060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+9.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe077…f5eebacked Team Falcons65c869.94$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.2313442.5%57 W · 77 L-4.0wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-12.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1365…c82abacked Team Falcons74c865.73$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$228.1761456%344 W · 270 L+13.5wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Virtus.pro21c823.45$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$170.199444.7%42 W · 52 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7d6…cab5backed Team Falcons77c802$614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.751364.9%333 W · 180 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick62cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04d3…cdacbacked Virtus.pro28c798.19$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.036631.8%21 W · 45 L-7.2wins-0.11per pick43cpaid-28.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x40a2…844fbacked Team Falcons79c796.63$629 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.291442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-26.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfee…ed1fbacked Virtus.pro19c759$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.5710618.9%20 W · 86 L-14.0wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-52%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xd7f5…40d7backed Virtus.pro27c750$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202.54141.5%17 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd794…a787backed Virtus.pro29c749.98$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e1b…ecafbacked Team Falcons57c729.34$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$312.3596645.1%436 W · 530 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons68c728.99$498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$230.892,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Team Falcons79c707.45$562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.7712536%45 W · 80 L-11.6wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-23.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4c22…0960backed Virtus.pro2c701.6$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15450%2 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-15.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Virtus.pro24c694.96$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164.931,27533.5%427 W · 848 L-15.6wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x45a7…bc63backed Virtus.pro4c666.85$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.369440.4%38 W · 56 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-17.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8884…3457backed Virtus.pro51c661.8$336 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$336.35058%29 W · 21 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x44aa…d1d5backed Virtus.pro22c650$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1431020%2 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.27per pick47cpaid-60.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Virtus.pro24c641.61$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.5717146.2%79 W · 92 L-8.7wins-0.05per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1b59…0ba0backed Virtus.pro37c627.86$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.3127737.2%103 W · 174 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffc4…b347backed Team Falcons58c615$354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.3529466%194 W · 100 L+9.5wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Virtus.pro41c600$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.0877256.5%436 W · 336 L+30.3wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Virtus.pro41c600$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.7374549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x87ed…b497backed Team Falcons57c596.85$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.4422752.9%120 W · 107 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1d3…b8debacked Team Falcons58c595.39$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.7770052.3%366 W · 334 L+47.1wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+13.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8725…eb10backed Virtus.pro25c591.99$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.177941.1%320 W · 459 L-7.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd206…bd2abacked Team Falcons72c575.08$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.4515957.2%91 W · 68 L+8.3wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x16ce…eba1backed Virtus.pro8c572.29$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.176132.1%13 W · 600 L-23.4wins-0.04per pick6cpaid-76.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x812a…73edbacked Virtus.pro19c558.1$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.2637223.1%86 W · 286 L-38.2wins-0.10per pick33cpaid-38.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Virtus.pro23c554.97$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$127.6416842.9%72 W · 96 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick42cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67af…61eebacked Virtus.pro38c547.11$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.5568345.8%313 W · 370 L-8.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-16.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aa6…83f9backed Virtus.pro37c531.07$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.1520145.3%91 W · 110 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Virtus.pro27c530.35$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.681,52137.9%576 W · 945 L-57.8wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-26.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Virtus.pro53c504.63$269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$269.2410833.3%36 W · 72 L-7.1wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc646…e394backed Team Falcons72c500$359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.8837655.1%207 W · 169 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b7…77dcbacked Team Falcons54c486.89$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$225.2599844.4%443 W · 555 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Virtus.pro38c486.49$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.2589938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Virtus.pro13c480.85$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.2937832.5%123 W · 255 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xebf5…b1d0backed Team Falcons65c472.99$307 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.628650%143 W · 143 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Virtus.pro31c470.97$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1461,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1956…750ebacked Virtus.pro42c469.12$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.031323.1%3 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.19per pick42cpaid-43.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Virtus.pro35c459.96$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.432,37847.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L+15.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ee3…9d1ebacked Team Falcons65c452.51$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.88633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-44%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Team Falcons62c440$273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.251544.9%231 W · 284 L+40.9wins+0.08per pick37cpaid+3.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xfa88…85a5backed Virtus.pro26c434.92$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.0869644.5%310 W · 386 L-3.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13c7…11d9backed Virtus.pro25c433.37$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.3433541.2%138 W · 197 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a05…12a2backed Team Falcons71c416.94$294 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.847650.8%242 W · 234 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x36b6…d248backed Team Falcons56c407.47$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.61475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+18.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Team Falcons74c405.41$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.4120367%136 W · 67 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.