Fifa International · resolved market
Will South Africa be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5d6c9f7d244347dedf6ef066d3fd8d4f2697a94ecd0dff5cd4a8d275a6e05a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,333
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,333 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 30c | 1,559$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.66 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 15c | 739$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.78 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 15c | 627.44$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$531.81 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0121…f722backed No | 24c | 497.98$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$380.71 | 236 | 44.9%106 W · 130 L | +11.7wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaee8…1154backed Yes | 80c | 454.92$364 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$363.94 | 134 | 37.3%50 W · 84 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aed…df39backed No | 14c | 293.48$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$252.2 | 256 | 38.7%99 W · 157 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 15c | 259.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.58 | 412 | 31.6%130 W · 282 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 15c | 256$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.65 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed No | 13c | 241.24$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.94 | 350 | 33.7%118 W · 232 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…6734backed No | 17c | 203.28$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.59 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | -7.6wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes | 64c | 198.34$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.82 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked No | 15c | 165$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.25 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 16c | 142.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.55 | 656 | 51.7%339 W · 317 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 51c | 134.71$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.71 | 202 | 50%101 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 13c | 126.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.49 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad58…7624backed No | 16c | 101.18$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.2 | 90 | 43.3%39 W · 51 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…bf77backed No | 14c | 100$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.5 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 16c | 72.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.72 | 162 | 46.9%76 W · 86 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…f030backed Yes | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 130 | 51.5%67 W · 63 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124b…bd60backed Yes | 35c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 90 | 78.9%71 W · 19 L | +18.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will South Africa be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?this page
- Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?No won
- Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.