Fifa International · resolved market
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3410e4e4e99bb1ad4a8352c654a28aac1ad327490772bef522900bf095f3cf8a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,171
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,576
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,171 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6eb…36fdbacked No | 25c | 2,660$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.2 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcef1…8d6dbacked Yes | 75c | 2,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$500 | 26 | 69.2%18 W · 8 L | +3.1wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa141…044bbacked Yes | 74c | 1,338$986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1db…c0afbacked Yes | 75c | 1,333$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.34 | 39 | 61.5%24 W · 15 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9372…3b1abacked Yes | 72c | 921.89$661 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.54 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 864.38$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.96 | 2,634 | 32.9%867 W · 1,767 L | +43.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa40d…ea7abacked No | 24c | 688.98$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.62 | 149 | 20.8%31 W · 118 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 9c | 501.98$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.71 | 457 | 36.3%166 W · 291 L | -13.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed No | 25c | 499.32$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.33 | 356 | 14.3%51 W · 305 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed No | 28c | 330.42$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.76 | 438 | 35.8%157 W · 281 L | -10.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd704…cf56backed No | 25c | 300.34$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.55 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c5…a320backed Yes | 74c | 290$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.69 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.1wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 75c | 281.08$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.32 | 320 | 44.1%141 W · 179 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cfe…e4debacked No | 26c | 273$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.32 | 226 | 23.5%53 W · 173 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cef…5961backed Yes | 74c | 235.03$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.55 | 49 | 30.6%15 W · 34 L | -7.2wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x66e7…8bcdbacked Yes | 40c | 218.87$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.4 | 878 | 37.2%327 W · 551 L | -41.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -33.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed No | 26c | 200$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 202 | 50%101 W · 101 L | +9.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf79c…cb96backed No | 23c | 191.23$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.69 | 920 | 38.5%354 W · 566 L | -21.8wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9951…72ffbacked Yes | 76c | 183.86$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31b…b140backed Yes | 74c | 171.99$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.45 | 222 | 43.7%97 W · 125 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 26c | 165$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.13 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x596a…7a0fbacked Yes | 12c | 156.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.83 | 172 | 17.4%30 W · 142 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7175…ae4ebacked Yes | 75c | 150$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 165 | 49.1%81 W · 84 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 25c | 149.33$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.93 | 302 | 41.4%125 W · 177 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf24f…15b2backed Yes | 15c | 129.38$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.38 | 129 | 32.6%42 W · 87 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -20%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 25c | 125$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 112 | 41.1%46 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 74c | 121.45$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.92 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 27c | 118$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.21 | 182 | 46.2%84 W · 98 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Yes | 75c | 108$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.54 | 260 | 37.3%97 W · 163 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…2e8fbacked Yes | 76c | 105.68$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 26c | 105$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 154 | 55.2%85 W · 69 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c91…5cccbacked Yes | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +3.1wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4435…786fbacked No | 25c | 85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.59 | 128 | 47.7%61 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdfda…4fe6backed Yes | 72c | 77.5$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.01 | 243 | 44.9%109 W · 134 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbada…d874backed No | 25c | 65.38$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 94 | 55.3%52 W · 42 L | +6.5wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ae2…ff6cbacked No | 30c | 63.44$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.83 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 29c | 55.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.89 | 779 | 9.6%75 W · 704 L | -11.8wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc428…bed2backed Yes | 74c | 54.13$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 70c | 52.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.08 | 1,067 | 49.1%524 W · 543 L | +7.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21a7…48c3backed Yes | 74c | 52.78$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 67cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9824…0cdfbacked No | 29c | 51.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed Yes | 75c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 235 | 43%101 W · 134 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 232 | 45.7%106 W · 126 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc23…5a3dbacked Yes | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.35 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf609…e68bbacked No | 27c | 47.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 206 | 52.9%109 W · 97 L | +14.1wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4f…728abacked Yes | 75c | 47.43$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -33%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ee…9e81backed No | 30c | 45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 1,795 | 44.2%794 W · 1,001 L | -12.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 39.91$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.65 | 460 | 47.2%217 W · 243 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a7…ecb7backed No | 33c | 35.04$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 198 | 25.3%50 W · 148 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cce…4b52backed Yes | 75c | 28.71$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 219 | 38.8%85 W · 134 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4724…7faabacked Yes | 74c | 27.1$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07c1…f3e2backed Yes | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 46 | 39.1%18 W · 28 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0aa…96f5backed Yes | 78c | 23.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 74cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 282 | 56.7%160 W · 122 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x176e…6925backed Yes | 72c | 16.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.65 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x670c…a7dfbacked Yes | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup?this page
- Will South Africa be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup?No won
- Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.