Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb5f4ac315505c0377e1728c5981606e235251672a75bf62b5e52c94f4b2238da
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $55,192
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $48,555
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,192 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdfca…9f31backed Yes | 2c | 5,773$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.49 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 2c | 1,950$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.38 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 2c | 1,449$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.74 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d6…64fbbacked Yes | 1c | 750$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 210 | 68.6%144 W · 66 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a498backed Yes | 13c | 680.75$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.13 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…9f87backed Yes | 3c | 558.56$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.41 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 4c | 536.7$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d6…966bbacked Yes | 6c | 478.27$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7fb…5fb7backed Yes | 5c | 460.58$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.7 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 5c | 459.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.85 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 12c | 448.67$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.68 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc03…bd4dbacked Yes | 12c | 425.71$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 7c | 400.23$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5a33…308bbacked Yes | 4c | 397.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…6178backed Yes | 14c | 395.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4497…c823backed Yes | 15c | 395.61$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 356.68$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…9d87backed Yes | 5c | 347.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.28 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.39per pick | 27cpaid | +301.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 7c | 336.21$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.41 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 8c | 302.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 14c | 292.16$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8de…37b5backed Yes | 11c | 277.53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.89 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed Yes | 12c | 264.06$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked Yes | 14c | 261.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.6 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 14c | 248.67$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.38 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 9c | 229.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.48 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2d1…75e3backed Yes | 4c | 227.59$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 6c | 222.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.08 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 13c | 214.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.47 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 6c | 200$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…645abacked Yes | 13c | 182.6$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 140 | 25.7%36 W · 104 L | -9.3wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f0…f424backed Yes | 9c | 176.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 14c | 174.38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c8…092abacked Yes | 6c | 169.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 361 | 23%83 W · 278 L | +15.0wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…72f8backed Yes | 17c | 159.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d2…2381backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +19%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x799c…3bedbacked Yes | 12c | 94.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 20c | 87.28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x858d…2682backed Yes | 14c | 82.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 79c | 70.92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.81 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 75c | 65.47$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad8a…9d7bbacked No | 79c | 44.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.27 | 75 | 58.7%44 W · 31 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e6…aa6cbacked No | 76c | 32.02$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 119 | 77.3%92 W · 27 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x75b0…e7b7backed No | 80c | 24.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 1,585 | 78.5%1,244 W · 341 L | +39.7wins | +0.03per pick | 76cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 80c | 15.53$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.14 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd7cf…7825backed No | 77c | 15.4$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.54 | 289 | 54.3%157 W · 132 L | -8.1wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa287…14a8backed No | 77c | 14.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.28 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 75cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 77c | 14.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.22 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.