Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe0c1a994d9db13fbeb26e6b67778b8319bc83645050db74f08cdf0b424a7fd33
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $114,123
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $119,912
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $114,123 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 267 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked No | 7c | 3,480$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.83 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 62c | 3,130$1,947 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,183.31 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 14c | 2,417$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.81 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked No | 20c | 2,375$468 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$468.26 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed No | 1c | 2,113$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked No | 7c | 2,100$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 43c | 1,682$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$966.4 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed Yes | 47c | 1,582$736 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$845.87 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 4c | 1,569$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.98 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x928a…0e27backed No | 49c | 1,495$728 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$727.69 | 90 | 54.4%49 W · 41 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 14c | 1,251$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.19 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 30c | 1,245$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$866.33 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked No | 4c | 1,220$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 49c | 1,069$526 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$543.2 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 30c | 1,052$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.55 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 50c | 1,029$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.37 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 16c | 1,001$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.41 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 5c | 953.08$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.65 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 76c | 748.9$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.02 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b0…9f87backed No | 8c | 726.71$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.08 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 9cpaid | +41%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…669ebacked No | 7c | 711.23$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.77 | 66 | 10.6%7 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 19c | 675.29$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.4 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 33c | 665.33$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448.58 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 38c | 587$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.57 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xef6a…18e8backed No | 58c | 561.1$327 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$327.38 | 73 | 60.3%44 W · 29 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035a…ff68backed Yes | 58c | 556.59$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.98 | 315 | 42.9%135 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…dd3bbacked Yes | 71c | 549.06$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed No | 16c | 476.72$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.55 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed No | 9c | 449.35$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd011…0b65backed No | 50c | 442.96$221 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.51 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 50c | 438.73$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.13 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 59c | 436.6$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.54 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb991…aa11backed No | 18c | 435.63$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.65 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa061…2c51backed No | 54c | 435.5$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.72 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed Yes | 50c | 418.59$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$210.4 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed05…9368backed No | 15c | 385.94$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.89 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.2wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x06d7…af53backed No | 49c | 374.19$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.72 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 6c | 353.88$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.07 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 55c | 344.63$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.54 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 38c | 343.54$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.88 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c06…62e3backed No | 43c | 340$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.14 | 101 | 63.4%64 W · 37 L | +8.7wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd44…28ccbacked Yes | 66c | 328.63$217 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.85 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9bd…e555backed No | 80c | 328.22$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.58 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -8.4wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked No | 66c | 326.78$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.23 | 183 | 27.3%50 W · 133 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1941…deeabacked Yes | 52c | 320.47$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.51 | 1,072 | 36.6%392 W · 680 L | +25.9wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked Yes | 54c | 308.07$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.35 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 10c | 303.97$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.32 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8c…f5e2backed Yes | 64c | 299.74$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.87 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -4.3wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 64c | 293.51$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.54 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 13c | 287.97$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 20c | 280.7$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.67 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 54c | 276.43$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.31 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd66f…66f8backed No | 51c | 271.94$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.14 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2e…c770backed Yes | 61c | 268.61$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.04 | 395 | 41.3%163 W · 232 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 47c | 265.72$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.35 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 36c | 262.95$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.94 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed No | 11c | 249.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 46c | 238.86$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.43 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17c2…1dddbacked No | 54c | 238.47$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.47 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked No | 14c | 237.49$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.38 | 185 | 30.3%56 W · 129 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x713b…c916backed No | 56c | 231.84$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.16 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 45c | 227.87$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.28 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4464…b76dbacked Yes | 57c | 214.96$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.15 | 86 | 26.7%23 W · 63 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +48.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc72…ad49backed Yes | 63c | 202.48$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.42 | 115 | 65.2%75 W · 40 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed Yes | 46c | 198.72$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.47 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa439…9ed6backed No | 31c | 195.54$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a7…9c23backed Yes | 61c | 192.17$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.25 | 178 | 38.8%69 W · 109 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf31…454abacked No | 48c | 191.23$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.79 | 191 | 52.9%101 W · 90 L | -7.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked No | 52c | 190.37$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.71 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1da0…c9e1backed No | 55c | 189.82$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.09 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 67cpaid | +20.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 51c | 184.17$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.97 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc80…56a7backed No | 61c | 178.94$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.95 | 164 | 12.2%20 W · 144 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68a3…5dd5backed Yes | 57c | 175.86$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.44 | 467 | 43.7%204 W · 263 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27a2…4240backed Yes | 54c | 175.16$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.71 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x425d…6cb0backed Yes | 56c | 174.57$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.02 | 253 | 44.7%113 W · 140 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4cc…a95dbacked No | 54c | 173.24$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.49 | 70 | 81.4%57 W · 13 L | +10.1wins | +0.14per pick | 67cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…0859backed Yes | 73c | 164.4$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.96 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a498backed Yes | 45c | 161.86$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.91 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed No | 16c | 149.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90c5…fb31backed No | 32c | 147.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 169 | 44.4%75 W · 94 L | +18.5wins | +0.11per pick | 33cpaid | +32.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 61c | 147.31$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.91 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb378…e4c0backed No | 39c | 145.09$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.66 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 7c | 144.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked Yes | 67c | 143.44$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4aaf…e80cbacked Yes | 70c | 139.09$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.11 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbecc…5f5bbacked Yes | 66c | 135.24$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae4f…cde1backed No | 38c | 133.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.97 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2702…06bebacked Yes | 58c | 132.28$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.46 | 93 | 28%26 W · 67 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked Yes | 47c | 119.11$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.99 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4634…d158backed Yes | 60c | 118.37$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.81 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 77c | 115.04$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.39 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01de…f177backed No | 41c | 113.43$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.52 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 42c | 113.04$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.48 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed No | 35c | 112.2$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.27 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcdb6…2992backed Yes | 44c | 111.29$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.79 | 71 | 16.9%12 W · 59 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04c…c640backed No | 40c | 108.77$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.82 | 233 | 49.8%116 W · 117 L | -15.7wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cf0…ab54backed No | 18c | 108.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 163 | 20.2%33 W · 130 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6606…4d70backed No | 45c | 108.32$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 84 | 66.7%56 W · 28 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb557…634cbacked Yes | 53c | 106.46$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.57 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.