Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7ed87d93b2f1b8aad8584d273100f0af9c5da3f1e157adefca7825cdb7247417
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $57,536
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,340
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,536 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 148 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd51e…6465backed Yes | 4c | 2,915$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.74 | 375 | 33.6%126 W · 249 L | -11.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 2,900$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfca…9f31backed Yes | 6c | 2,124$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.52 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5617…8c67backed Yes | 1c | 1,649$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 6c | 1,540$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.88 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 4c | 1,282$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8fc…88e1backed Yes | 27c | 1,139$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.9 | 1,298 | 33.1%430 W · 868 L | +39.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 19c | 1,020$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.17 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed Yes | 10c | 795.63$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.55 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd75d…00c8backed Yes | 12c | 782.05$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.9 | 301 | 44.9%135 W · 166 L | +16.3wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes | 18c | 683.8$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.35 | 490 | 38.8%190 W · 300 L | +24.4wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a73…a498backed Yes | 32c | 634.53$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.46 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed Yes | 6c | 625$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.5 | 621 | 9.8%61 W · 560 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb991…aa11backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 9c | 523.51$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.47 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 3c | 500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5567…6178backed Yes | 29c | 456.04$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.46 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29de…d9e6backed Yes | 4c | 449.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.75 | 111 | 22.5%25 W · 86 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Yes | 43c | 442.76$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.52 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 33c | 421.1$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.89 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd8de…37b5backed Yes | 7c | 380.03$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 70c | 355$249 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.5 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf787…1b63backed Yes | 15c | 349.53$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.54 | 432 | 38%164 W · 268 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 5c | 330$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 24c | 323.91$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0a…5f98backed Yes | 29c | 317.21$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.01 | 395 | 35.4%140 W · 255 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f46…1bbabacked Yes | 4c | 300.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 121 | 25.6%31 W · 90 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64a4…c103backed Yes | 26c | 299.55$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.23 | 110 | 38.2%42 W · 68 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes | 23c | 298.01$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.03 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…5a2bbacked Yes | 5c | 275.81$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 84 | 17.9%15 W · 69 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 26c | 275.52$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.97 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 79c | 274.23$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.45 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ad6…669ebacked Yes | 5c | 261.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 66 | 10.6%7 W · 59 L | -1.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -66.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 8c | 255$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.13 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 34c | 231.24$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.46 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 16c | 229.22$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce5d…5b70backed Yes | 34c | 225.19$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.18 | 86 | 32.6%28 W · 58 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 67c | 224.18$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.01 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 35c | 220.63$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.78 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 67c | 208.47$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.81 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…7f5abacked Yes | 15c | 205.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked Yes | 12c | 203.79$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.99 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 27c | 200.22$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.55 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…e9f9backed Yes | 25c | 200$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -3.6wins | -0.19per pick | 35cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 33c | 199.68$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.89 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1fa…047dbacked Yes | 14c | 193.7$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 94 | 28.7%27 W · 67 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 23cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 187.73$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.23 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked No | 67c | 187.12$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.78 | 1,420 | 58.7%833 W · 587 L | +69.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 14c | 170$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.2 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x216e…fda6backed Yes | 11c | 160$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 71 | 18.3%13 W · 58 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 8c | 160$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xfa1f…af40backed Yes | 20c | 159.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd229…fcd6backed Yes | 12c | 150$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1,242 | 16.7%207 W · 1,035 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 140.57$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.88 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff7…fb8bbacked No | 71c | 131.29$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.32 | 513 | 21.2%109 W · 404 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9f…9971backed Yes | 15c | 128.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +47.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c7e…c08ebacked No | 70c | 124.71$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.41 | 570 | 38.1%217 W · 353 L | -40.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -33%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2f01…4c3abacked Yes | 33c | 119.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.18 | 161 | 59%95 W · 66 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd44…28ccbacked Yes | 40c | 117.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.01 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1385…e96abacked Yes | 13c | 111.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 137 | 32.1%44 W · 93 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb532…8577backed Yes | 13c | 111.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 191 | 33.5%64 W · 127 L | +10.2wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…b344backed Yes | 13c | 111.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a71…0dcdbacked Yes | 13c | 111.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…d52dbacked No | 67c | 108.85$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 28c | 107.84$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb938…c094backed Yes | 35c | 103.76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.89 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 67c | 102.72$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.46 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76a2…6651backed Yes | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 146 | 37.7%55 W · 91 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c38…d6a6backed Yes | 13c | 99.21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 64 | 21.9%14 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.08per pick | 30cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xecdb…c4c7backed No | 75c | 97.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x951c…d8c7backed Yes | 32c | 95.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 683 | 35.4%242 W · 441 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb01…43bbbacked Yes | 33c | 93.29$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.66 | 739 | 27.3%202 W · 537 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a91…983fbacked Yes | 32c | 90.4$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.93 | 139 | 42.4%59 W · 80 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc54d…72f8backed Yes | 37c | 87.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.02 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f6…91d5backed Yes | 34c | 86.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 85.92$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17dd…056abacked Yes | 16c | 85.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 69 | 13%9 W · 60 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -63.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…befcbacked Yes | 33c | 83.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x85e8…9301backed Yes | 34c | 80.87$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.59 | 113 | 62.8%71 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf4da…dfb5backed Yes | 28c | 80.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.79 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +4.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb55c…04eabacked No | 77c | 76.27$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.54 | 201 | 72.6%146 W · 55 L | -6.3wins | -0.03per pick | 76cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 37c | 75.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.46 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ca6…4b74backed Yes | 31c | 74.52$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.46 | 118 | 33.1%39 W · 79 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 71c | 73.43$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.09 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 68c | 73.26$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3887…9496backed No | 69c | 72.64$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.77 | 243 | 70%170 W · 73 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f0…f424backed Yes | 26c | 71.23$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 27c | 70.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed Yes | 24c | 70.76$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.11 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb207…f7a9backed Yes | 31c | 70.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c9…d2b8backed No | 67c | 64.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 535 | 47.5%254 W · 281 L | -8.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…0859backed Yes | 29c | 64.07$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.58 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 68c | 63.67$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35cd…36a8backed Yes | 25c | 62.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.59 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 31cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf57d…f322backed Yes | 31c | 59.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 255 | 19.2%49 W · 206 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e44…eec7backed Yes | 30c | 58.79$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -3.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5f…fc90backed No | 70c | 54.81$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.44 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb2c…d68fbacked No | 72c | 53.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -66%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3aae…e7a0backed Yes | 36c | 51.5$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.73 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.15per pick | 31cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbc29…b3b6backed Yes | 24c | 51.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 78-79°F on April 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be 77°F or below on April 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 84-85°F on April 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on April 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.