CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs regain - Map 2 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6076f8c0c0198aaec4a6e209581cbfff5dfcd1db786e1dd9dd61b1c9e06cb51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marsborneof Marsborne, regain
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,911
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,228
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,911 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed regain | 13c | 917.91$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.33 | 2,664 | 30.8%820 W · 1,844 L | -109.1wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba03…0486backed Marsborne | 74c | 765.2$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.95 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked regain | 14c | 750$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 2,221 | 41.3%917 W · 1,304 L | -22.6wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…5627backed Marsborne | 77c | 306.36$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.54 | 405 | 58.8%238 W · 167 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed regain | 19c | 269.08$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.66 | 6,501 | 42.9%2,791 W · 3,710 L | -79.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked regain | 26c | 212.25$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.28 | 3,259 | 50.3%1,639 W · 1,620 L | +98.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b88…16e6backed Marsborne | 73c | 177.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.06 | 158 | 23.4%37 W · 121 L | -18.0wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9b75…fa0ebacked regain | 27c | 162.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed regain | 21c | 159.24$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.87 | 2,554 | 41.3%1,054 W · 1,500 L | -116.5wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked regain | 26c | 156.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.81 | 153 | 37.3%57 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c42…b792backed regain | 23c | 150$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 75 | 37.3%28 W · 47 L | -4.4wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…b3a6backed regain | 29c | 124.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 125 | 35.2%44 W · 81 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked regain | 25c | 120$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 393 | 38.2%150 W · 243 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked regain | 27c | 91.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 2,397 | 42.7%1,023 W · 1,374 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Marsborne | 72c | 84.78$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.71 | 177 | 52.5%93 W · 84 L | +8.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Marsborne | 71c | 76.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 2,672 | 47.8%1,277 W · 1,395 L | -31.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0d…1068backed Marsborne | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 325 | 61.5%200 W · 125 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Marsborne | 74c | 36.81$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 618 | 55%340 W · 278 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Marsborne | 68c | 35.5$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 5,034 | 37.2%1,874 W · 3,160 L | -260.4wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Marsborne | 75c | 14.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.72 | 371 | 49.6%184 W · 187 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs regain - Map 2 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs regain (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries North American Qualifier PlayoffsMarsborne won
- Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs regain - Map 1 WinnerMarsborne won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Marsborne (-3.5) vs regain (+3.5)Marsborne won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Marsborne (-3.5) vs regain (+3.5)Marsborne won
- Map Handicap: MARS (-1.5) vs regain (+1.5)Marsborne won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.