CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: MARS (-1.5) vs regain (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa97a31865c86e8691c3d7074be23b2c8e421a681ecbc5c49da89e760048eeba6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marsborneof Marsborne, regain
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0993…525fbacked regain | 46c | 18,807$8,689 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,689.2 | 64 | 54.7%35 W · 29 L | +4.2wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29b5…cc6cbacked Marsborne | 54c | 14,284$7,651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,633.13 | 5,028 | 55%2,763 W · 2,265 L | +112.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0478…37c3backed Marsborne | 53c | 12,974$6,833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,140.27 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed regain | 49c | 6,579$3,202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,202.25 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Marsborne | 53c | 3,337$1,768 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,569.67 | 2,610 | 51.7%1,349 W · 1,261 L | +16.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a74…de59backed regain | 47c | 3,187$1,498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,497.85 | 77 | 51.9%40 W · 37 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked regain | 46c | 3,083$1,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,428.91 | 253 | 44.3%112 W · 141 L | -7.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb454…a98cbacked Marsborne | 52c | 2,140$1,107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,033.09 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -7.4wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9d87…a82bbacked Marsborne | 55c | 1,600$886 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$714.31 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e50…2609backed Marsborne | 54c | 1,398$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$647.5 | 590 | 55.3%326 W · 264 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ca…6a8bbacked regain | 48c | 1,230$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$587.7 | 751 | 45.4%341 W · 410 L | -22.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34b…9296backed Marsborne | 53c | 1,126$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.13 | 1,998 | 53.7%1,073 W · 925 L | +5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3f…4333backed Marsborne | 53c | 1,125$598 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$526.93 | 458 | 54.8%251 W · 207 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1186…0355backed regain | 48c | 909.44$440 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439.53 | 233 | 56.2%131 W · 102 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75d…0717backed Marsborne | 55c | 668.2$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.47 | 287 | 43.2%124 W · 163 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb55b…c5b4backed regain | 47c | 639.99$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300.8 | 351 | 53.8%189 W · 162 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed regain | 45c | 598$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.22 | 521 | 50.3%262 W · 259 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc3…f923backed regain | 47c | 507.91$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.2 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b75…fa0ebacked Marsborne | 54c | 500$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked regain | 47c | 481.32$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.72 | 246 | 46.7%115 W · 131 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…8de1backed regain | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,314 | 44.3%582 W · 732 L | +47.4wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc754…4b1dbacked regain | 47c | 442.26$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.77 | 337 | 40.9%138 W · 199 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Marsborne | 52c | 363.59$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.09 | 166 | 53%88 W · 78 L | +8.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked regain | 46c | 360$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.6 | 393 | 38.2%150 W · 243 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Marsborne | 51c | 319.99$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.2 | 2,599 | 47.8%1,242 W · 1,357 L | -30.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed regain | 46c | 296.88$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.08 | 982 | 48.3%474 W · 508 L | +9.0wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1025…7e11backed regain | 46c | 279.49$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.87 | 554 | 41.2%228 W · 326 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…6de0backed Marsborne | 55c | 277$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.65 | 131 | 48.9%64 W · 67 L | +7.6wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe222…6019backed Marsborne | 55c | 257.13$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.71 | 44 | 50%22 W · 22 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66b1…340fbacked regain | 46c | 215$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.9 | 1,154 | 48.3%557 W · 597 L | +4.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ad1…b4c5backed regain | 49c | 181.89$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.03 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked regain | 48c | 170$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.43 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed regain | 48c | 150$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 604 | 51%308 W · 296 L | +8.9wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…2208backed regain | 47c | 148.57$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.3 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91a2…e415backed regain | 48c | 148$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.04 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd331…733cbacked regain | 46c | 146$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.16 | 194 | 57.2%111 W · 83 L | +9.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0698…b91dbacked regain | 47c | 145.53$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.4 | 156 | 37.2%58 W · 98 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…d837backed regain | 47c | 132.57$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b4e…417cbacked regain | 46c | 130$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 82 | 48.8%40 W · 42 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c5…20d0backed Marsborne | 52c | 123.89$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.88 | 607 | 55%334 W · 273 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaebf…4e6abacked Marsborne | 55c | 115$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.75 | 265 | 54.3%144 W · 121 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24d0…6cbabacked regain | 46c | 114.84$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.22 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.12per pick | 49cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a30…7039backed Marsborne | 56c | 113.35$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.78 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x90a7…5ac0backed regain | 47c | 111$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.17 | 225 | 46.7%105 W · 120 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc59…35f7backed regain | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 42%29 W · 40 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf58d…1fadbacked regain | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 45cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdd…e70ebacked regain | 46c | 108$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.68 | 138 | 36.2%50 W · 88 L | -11.8wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked regain | 44c | 102.21$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.97 | 7,892 | 50.5%3,983 W · 3,909 L | +182.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fd6…d4a0backed regain | 47c | 100$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47 | 170 | 41.2%70 W · 100 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Marsborne | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 659 | 46.6%307 W · 352 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…6182backed regain | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -5.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad3…1af6backed regain | 46c | 86.96$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -2.3wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f46…c530backed regain | 48c | 83.33$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -3.4wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xded3…c56bbacked regain | 48c | 78.69$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Marsborne | 55c | 67.07$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.37 | 161 | 46.6%75 W · 86 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Marsborne | 52c | 58.85$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.25 | 1,828 | 47.6%871 W · 957 L | -54.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Marsborne | 50c | 56.53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.27 | 610 | 47.7%291 W · 319 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed regain | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.74 | 673 | 50.1%337 W · 336 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…fc3abacked regain | 47c | 47.14$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac8…f0a3backed regain | 46c | 45.65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…1e14backed Marsborne | 55c | 44.09$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 194 | 53.6%104 W · 90 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2175…4b33backed regain | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62cd…7b19backed regain | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 47 | 46.8%22 W · 25 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b4…6815backed Marsborne | 52c | 37.25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.82 | 232 | 65.1%151 W · 81 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7681…ff3fbacked regain | 46c | 36.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked regain | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 232 | 35.3%82 W · 150 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -17%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff5a…6cedbacked regain | 50c | 29.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c8e…b38fbacked Marsborne | 55c | 29.22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.24 | 85 | 51.8%44 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: MARS (-1.5) vs regain (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs regain (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries North American Qualifier PlayoffsMarsborne won
- Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs regain - Map 1 WinnerMarsborne won
- Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs regain - Map 2 WinnerMarsborne won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Marsborne (-3.5) vs regain (+3.5)Marsborne won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Marsborne (-3.5) vs regain (+3.5)Marsborne won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.