CS2 · resolved market
Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs regain - Map 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x99769c8eb3e102f009c77b123a895c0c72aad22f896cab3afee0f46de0e2d220
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marsborneof Marsborne, regain
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,063
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,165
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,063 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xba03…0486backed Marsborne | 63c | 3,333$2,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,225.03 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed regain | 37c | 2,307$846 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$845.7 | 2,624 | 51.8%1,359 W · 1,265 L | +18.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ca…6a8bbacked regain | 34c | 1,238$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.52 | 752 | 45.5%342 W · 410 L | -21.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked regain | 33c | 942$314 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$314.35 | 495 | 36.4%180 W · 315 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x584f…54b9backed Marsborne | 72c | 695.07$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.29 | 122 | 59%72 W · 50 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed regain | 35c | 631.98$223 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.44 | 6,480 | 42.9%2,782 W · 3,698 L | -79.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffca…0b64backed regain | 32c | 600$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192 | 521 | 50.3%262 W · 259 L | -6.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked regain | 37c | 581.66$212 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.37 | 3,257 | 50.3%1,638 W · 1,619 L | +98.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9307…9da3backed regain | 38c | 490.8$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.05 | 1,008 | 69.3%699 W · 309 L | +152.8wins | +0.15per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Marsborne | 68c | 429.25$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.86 | 2,622 | 47.6%1,249 W · 1,373 L | -33.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebc…a33dbacked Marsborne | 67c | 401.39$270 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.57 | 631 | 57.1%360 W · 271 L | +40.1wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d87…a82bbacked Marsborne | 58c | 400$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ef…2864backed Marsborne | 65c | 377.45$244 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.43 | 170 | 52.4%89 W · 81 L | +8.7wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Marsborne | 66c | 375$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.75 | 619 | 48%297 W · 322 L | -11.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc0…4b85backed Marsborne | 66c | 300$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102 | 2,066 | 41.5%858 W · 1,208 L | -49.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc0c…dac0backed Marsborne | 65c | 280$182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.89 | 414 | 75.4%312 W · 102 L | +22.1wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1044…d67abacked Marsborne | 67c | 200.02$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.11 | 153 | 37.3%57 W · 96 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b88…16e6backed regain | 31c | 127.84$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 158 | 23.4%37 W · 121 L | -18.0wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -44.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked regain | 25c | 124.51$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.53 | 3,459 | 29.3%1,012 W · 2,447 L | -279.9wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ed1…fd2abacked Marsborne | 66c | 120$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.4 | 393 | 38.2%150 W · 243 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Marsborne | 67c | 105.04$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.17 | 111 | 55%61 W · 50 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d7…0dfcbacked Marsborne | 64c | 105$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.8 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked regain | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 919 | 45.8%421 W · 498 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed regain | 30c | 99.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.87 | 1,848 | 47.6%879 W · 969 L | -55.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb07…e2ccbacked regain | 26c | 79.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.88 | 247 | 46.6%115 W · 132 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccdc…dbe6backed regain | 32c | 78.13$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 367 | 49.3%181 W · 186 L | -5.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91a2…e415backed regain | 32c | 75$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 72 | 34.7%25 W · 47 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Marsborne | 72c | 74.99$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.02 | 1,591 | 46.6%741 W · 850 L | +30.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0e…4f01backed regain | 36c | 58.42$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.74 | 677 | 50.2%340 W · 337 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x94d2…cfbdbacked Marsborne | 66c | 55.05$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.93 | 2,110 | 47.2%995 W · 1,115 L | -62.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked regain | 36c | 55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.55 | 2,604 | 52.6%1,371 W · 1,233 L | +98.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e9f…3988backed Marsborne | 64c | 54.9$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 220 | 53.2%117 W · 103 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked regain | 37c | 48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 4,933 | 37.4%1,844 W · 3,089 L | -249.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f0c…a691backed regain | 33c | 45$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 216 | 50.5%109 W · 107 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cf1…d7febacked regain | 36c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 238 | 35.3%84 W · 154 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -15%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe554…588dbacked regain | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -6.1wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1967…30b5backed regain | 32c | 38.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 292 | 46.9%137 W · 155 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b75…fa0ebacked Marsborne | 68c | 34.84$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.15 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59d8…ad87backed Marsborne | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 127 | 54.3%69 W · 58 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb91c…ed66backed regain | 37c | 27.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 700 | 42.3%296 W · 404 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd819…2d80backed Marsborne | 66c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.5 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs regain - Map 1 Winnerthis page
- Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs regain (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries North American Qualifier PlayoffsMarsborne won
- Counter-Strike: Marsborne vs regain - Map 2 WinnerMarsborne won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Under won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Marsborne (-3.5) vs regain (+3.5)Marsborne won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Marsborne (-3.5) vs regain (+3.5)Marsborne won
- Map Handicap: MARS (-1.5) vs regain (+1.5)Marsborne won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.