Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will Lyon beat Olympiacos?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6201fbf8f441f644c17ad791c8c9c2249f373af96f37b31d2498bcdfbb538ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,912
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,839
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,912 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6fe…b77fbacked No | 48c | 999.96$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.98 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f7…039abacked Yes | 49c | 999.95$490 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$509.97 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 48c | 749.96$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.98 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed No | 51c | 589.58$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 87 | 42.5%37 W · 50 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88e6…0b86backed No | 49c | 583.16$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9733…f034backed Yes | 50c | 580.74$290 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.37 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +48%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…742dbacked No | 50c | 580.74$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.37 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 58cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 50c | 532.35$264 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.69 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17a2…15d7backed No | 49c | 399.97$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfaff…7d46backed Yes | 51c | 391.92$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35d5…efc9backed Yes | 51c | 386.73$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbd…af92backed No | 48c | 348.05$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.41 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbe29…63e5backed Yes | 52c | 300$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa1e1…921ebacked Yes | 51c | 299.99$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d4…8c0dbacked Yes | 52c | 286.08$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefbd…65fabacked No | 51c | 284.06$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed Yes | 51c | 281.72$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.98 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +94.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd965…e76ebacked No | 49c | 272.12$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.34 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02d4…456cbacked Yes | 52c | 265.71$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a64…4430backed No | 18c | 254.74$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.52 | 187 | 39%73 W · 114 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6103…3c55backed Yes | 51c | 243.31$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.22 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed Yes | 48c | 226.96$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.02 | 85 | 45.9%39 W · 46 L | +4.1wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bdb…148ebacked Yes | 51c | 215.35$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.52 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb492…b7edbacked No | 49c | 215.04$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f2c…4cf3backed Yes | 52c | 211.54$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.54 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d74…ffb3backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…811abacked No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 49c | 198.21$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.52 | 178 | 35.4%63 W · 115 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe36f…ef5fbacked No | 52c | 194.23$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4abe…db80backed Yes | 52c | 193.48$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xedf8…e746backed Yes | 52c | 180$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +79.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x993c…db92backed No | 51c | 166.67$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12f3…ccaabacked Yes | 52c | 163.46$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc0…8de0backed No | 49c | 107.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9f1…9a6fbacked Yes | 49c | 107.4$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1ff6…4776backed No | 51c | 103.89$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…073bbacked No | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05dd…91b6backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3c…bc7abacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ae…c4edbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59ab…6616backed Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c02…dbcebacked No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 49c | 99.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 82 | 45.1%37 W · 45 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3654…458bbacked No | 51c | 99.24$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80a1…be57backed No | 51c | 97.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x485f…f682backed Yes | 51c | 97.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +94.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0446…6bd9backed Yes | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47dc…eec9backed Yes | 50c | 79.22$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.22 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x197e…9059backed No | 51c | 76.47$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x535c…0af0backed Yes | 52c | 71.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ee2…02e7backed No | 51c | 66.56$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe693…7475backed Yes | 51c | 64.88$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7e…4562backed Yes | 50c | 62.83$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +3.8wins | +0.38per pick | 52cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e68…509dbacked Yes | 51c | 61.84$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd3…fef3backed Yes | 57c | 59.4$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.54 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +15%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 51c | 58.82$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -3.6wins | -0.21per pick | 57cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6e21…4d75backed Yes | 53c | 52.78$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +31.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee8b…d83fbacked No | 51c | 50.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87c1…c3bcbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62fe…1d08backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…80aabacked Yes | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdcfc…9e59backed Yes | 51c | 41.18$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbb…55dbbacked Yes | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e4…46d3backed No | 49c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde9a…a41fbacked Yes | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…b60dbacked Yes | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…68c9backed Yes | 54c | 31.48$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a1…7934backed No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x259c…a64cbacked Yes | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Yes | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -0.9wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6c…b6d7backed Yes | 52c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x735c…68c7backed Yes | 52c | 21.38$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1601…e195backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +37.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Lyon beat Olympiacos?this page
- Will Olympiacos beat Lyon?No won
- Will the match between Lyon vs. Olympiacos end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.