Ncaa Basketball · resolved market
Duke Blue Devils vs. Texas Longhorns
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb624e2f1a4e32453b9af8bebe7c823a2bbe3cc9ff5cdbd23e8a392547c2ca7cf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Duke Blue Devilsof Duke Blue Devils, Texas Longhorns
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ncaa Basketballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $64,866
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $76,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $64,866 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ncaa Basketball is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x00d6…aa44backed Texas Longhorns | 19c | 18,947$3,660 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,659.75 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +452.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Duke Blue Devils | 80c | 17,251$13,782 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,468.92 | 1,511 | 47.8%722 W · 789 L | -35.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Texas Longhorns | 14c | 5,712$814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$814.4 | 1,887 | 45.2%853 W · 1,034 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Texas Longhorns | 17c | 2,823$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.05 | 139 | 36.7%51 W · 88 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Texas Longhorns | 19c | 1,400$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.14 | 151 | 24.5%37 W · 114 L | -5.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…2abfbacked Texas Longhorns | 17c | 915.58$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.25 | 529 | 28.4%150 W · 379 L | -9.2wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3597…bb13backed Texas Longhorns | 6c | 666.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…f189backed Texas Longhorns | 9c | 500$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 115 | 7%8 W · 107 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 10cpaid | -57.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Duke Blue Devils | 9c | 473.91$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.56 | 1,910 | 49.6%947 W · 963 L | +30.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076c…4e7bbacked Texas Longhorns | 15c | 460$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.84 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74bc…98c9backed Duke Blue Devils | 80c | 412.91$330 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.33 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Texas Longhorns | 18c | 325$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 68 | 44.1%30 W · 38 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Texas Longhorns | 21c | 324$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 132 | 27.3%36 W · 96 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x505d…a39cbacked Texas Longhorns | 18c | 300$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Duke Blue Devils | 80c | 235$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.26 | 1,951 | 45.1%880 W · 1,071 L | -19.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed Duke Blue Devils | 77c | 178.25$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Texas Longhorns | 16c | 166$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 1,391 | 44.1%613 W · 778 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Texas Longhorns | 18c | 149.05$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 456 | 44.5%203 W · 253 L | -16.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…3d27backed Texas Longhorns | 18c | 126.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 171 | 22.8%39 W · 132 L | -7.0wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked Duke Blue Devils | 79c | 126.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.58 | 254 | 38.2%97 W · 157 L | -14.3wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9def…d1adbacked Texas Longhorns | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf37…8b49backed Texas Longhorns | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -3.9wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -60.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2816…0730backed Texas Longhorns | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1feb…bdc1backed Texas Longhorns | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 0%0 W · 15 L | -3.1wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xaca3…cb95backed Texas Longhorns | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Texas Longhorns | 21c | 95$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 658 | 25.7%169 W · 489 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Texas Longhorns | 22c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 378 | 35.7%135 W · 243 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8639…fb86backed Texas Longhorns | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 177 | 40.7%72 W · 105 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e39…d2f1backed Texas Longhorns | 29c | 70$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Duke Blue Devils | 79c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 449 | 55.2%248 W · 201 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f81…078fbacked Duke Blue Devils | 79c | 50.63$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc597…4ee7backed Duke Blue Devils | 77c | 49.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed Texas Longhorns | 22c | 48.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.78 | 79 | 36.7%29 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -34%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ncaa Basketball and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 2 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Texas Longhornsthis page
- Duke Blue Devils vs. Texas Longhorns: O/U 150.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.