Fifa International · resolved market
Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goals
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6420763b4d0d6ea5acb9cf8154552bd8858535ca2f0f4f2eb97c9714008136e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,602
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf511…bfe4backed No | 61c | 882.22$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.22 | 145 | 79.3%115 W · 30 L | +17.0wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5102…7b08backed Yes | 40c | 750$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x783b…dc4cbacked No | 11c | 500$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 97 | 67%65 W · 32 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2461…f240backed Yes | 44c | 481.61$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.13 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x44f3…975cbacked No | 55c | 415.22$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.9 | 68 | 30.9%21 W · 47 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329d…5a92backed No | 60c | 313.06$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.83 | 2,576 | 46.3%1,192 W · 1,384 L | +35.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x336b…1233backed No | 45c | 276.04$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.22 | 192 | 52.1%100 W · 92 L | +10.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb417…6d8fbacked Yes | 53c | 136.99$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.99 | 73 | 42.5%31 W · 42 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7200…9299backed Yes | 51c | 75$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.1 | 169 | 46.2%78 W · 91 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56c8…7cc8backed No | 45c | 68.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 122 | 41%50 W · 72 L | -8.3wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2b36…d80cbacked Yes | 29c | 66.66$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.66 | 186 | 41.9%78 W · 108 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb124…7380backed Yes | 33c | 60.61$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 345 | 37.1%128 W · 217 L | -14.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d29…5111backed No | 54c | 55.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0e3…29ebbacked No | 51c | 50.77$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 131 | 63.4%83 W · 48 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x51bf…d7a5backed Yes | 49c | 50.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.89 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +5.6wins | +0.30per pick | 55cpaid | +51.2%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 48c | 41.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 2,796 | 56.7%1,585 W · 1,211 L | -9.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe3cb…ac21backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be1…68f3backed Yes | 55c | 36.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.64 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 32c | 32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 2,453 | 34.7%850 W · 1,603 L | +84.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6eee…d2a1backed Yes | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked No | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 454 | 72.9%331 W · 123 L | +18.8wins | +0.04per pick | 69cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 49c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.7 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x6f2e…7c7bbacked No | 64c | 20.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 160 | 65%104 W · 56 L | +16.7wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd0e9…67ffbacked No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 38 | 65.8%25 W · 13 L | +4.9wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Romelu Lukaku: 1+ goalsthis page
- Amadou Onana: 2+ goalsNo won
- Charles De Ketelaere: 1+ goalsNo won
- Charles De Ketelaere: 2+ goalsNo won
- Chris Wood: 1+ assistsNo won
- Chris Wood: 1+ goalsNo won
- Chris Wood: 2+ goalsNo won
- Chris Wood: 3+ goalsNo won
- Jeremy Doku: 1+ assistsNo won
- Jeremy Doku: 1+ goalsNo won
- Jeremy Doku: 2+ assistsNo won
- Jeremy Doku: 2+ goalsNo won
- Jeremy Doku: 3+ goalsNo won
- Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ assistsNo won
- Kevin De Bruyne: 1+ goalsYes won
- Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ assistsNo won
- Kevin De Bruyne: 3+ shotsYes won
- Kevin De Bruyne: 4+ shotsYes won
- Leandro Trossard: 1+ assistsNo won
- Leandro Trossard: 1+ goalsYes won
- Leandro Trossard: 2+ goalsYes won
- Leandro Trossard: 3+ goalsNo won
- Maxim De Cuyper: 1+ goalsNo won
- Nicolas Raskin: 2+ goalsNo won
- Youri Tielemans: 1+ assistsNo won
- Youri Tielemans: 2+ goalsNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.