South American Leagues · resolved market
Spread: Santos FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb648baa045315929aeccc589c59f413cb159878776983d6909d0ef37d5c3ddde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- EC Vitóriaof Santos FC, EC Vitória
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,977
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5ad5…37b9backed EC Vitória | 51c | 9,196$4,704 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,491.86 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | +11.9wins | +0.14per pick | 30cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed EC Vitória | 40c | 6,469$2,604 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,865.25 | 8,112 | 48.7%3,951 W · 4,161 L | +27.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Santos FC | 42c | 4,967$2,087 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,086.65 | 5,762 | 45.4%2,614 W · 3,148 L | +94.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Santos FC | 57c | 3,939$2,245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,245.29 | 1,328 | 57%757 W · 571 L | +57.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed EC Vitória | 34c | 930.44$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.09 | 3,755 | 38.2%1,435 W · 2,320 L | -32.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Santos FC | 11c | 405.23$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.54 | 2,287 | 34.3%784 W · 1,503 L | -30.0wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed EC Vitória | 34c | 350.19$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$230.8 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed EC Vitória | 35c | 260.8$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.52 | 1,303 | 50.1%653 W · 650 L | -14.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed EC Vitória | 34c | 258.82$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.82 | 1,253 | 56.2%704 W · 549 L | +73.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xede5…5300backed EC Vitória | 34c | 220.5$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.53 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked EC Vitória | 34c | 169.44$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.86 | 1,447 | 45.9%664 W · 783 L | -22.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked Santos FC | 57c | 150.88$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 66 | 57.6%38 W · 28 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +21.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked EC Vitória | 64c | 127.72$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…5720backed Santos FC | 57c | 117.12$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.6 | 47 | 66%31 W · 16 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7a3f…6712backed EC Vitória | 36c | 110.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.56 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed EC Vitória | 65c | 102.26$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6d2…d67bbacked Santos FC | 57c | 89.35$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 292 | 45.2%132 W · 160 L | -24.0wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4284…4e8cbacked EC Vitória | 46c | 79.11$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.51 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 34cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked EC Vitória | 45c | 77.44$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.78 | 411 | 45.5%187 W · 224 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc978…706bbacked EC Vitória | 40c | 73.13$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.7 | 58 | 48.3%28 W · 30 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked EC Vitória | 59c | 69$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.29 | 448 | 43.8%196 W · 252 L | +11.4wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed EC Vitória | 44c | 68.77$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.77 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7243…e409backed Santos FC | 60c | 66.5$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3537…3419backed Santos FC | 57c | 39.64$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed EC Vitória | 36c | 31.76$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.28 | 333 | 65.5%218 W · 115 L | +10.7wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked EC Vitória | 65c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a84…c4fcbacked Santos FC | 57c | 19.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a73…b341backed EC Vitória | 62c | 16.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Santos FC (-2.5)this page
- Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 0.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 1.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 2.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 3.5Over won
- Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 4.5Under won
- Santos FC vs. EC Vitória: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: EC Vitória (-1.5)Santos FC won
- Spread: Santos FC (-1.5)Santos FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.