TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,432
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,436

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,432 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 8 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7fd3…bd04backed No53c100$53 inLost-$534266.7%28 W · 14 L+4.5wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+20.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x5bda…17a8backed Yes47c99.99$47 inWon+$531,75350.8%890 W · 863 L+29.2wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc33d…0d40backed No18c95.11$17 inLost-$16.9643043%185 W · 245 L-13.6wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-19.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes70c92.99$65 inWon+$27.6377752.1%405 W · 372 L+36.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c97…82adbacked No53c92.45$49 inLost-$496842.6%29 W · 39 L-6.0wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-15.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Yes47c59.68$28 inWon+$31.6372247.6%344 W · 378 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked No25c39.88$10 inLost-$10.041,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Yes47c28.46$13 inWon+$15.0867250.1%337 W · 335 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.