MLB · resolved market
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa5ec7e738e258cf778e7338d1ad354bc4874db3b6b482ab11b443ed868ea6f5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,907
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,091
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,907 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xefdd…017fbacked Over | 48c | 5,169$2,481 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,687.63 | 77 | 55.8%43 W · 34 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +15%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Under | 52c | 2,295$1,194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,193.54 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 51c | 1,247$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$638.22 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc38…1e98backed Under | 53c | 1,243$659 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$658.82 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21b7…c861backed Under | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 149 | 38.3%57 W · 92 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x992b…5053backed Over | 47c | 938.22$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.22 | 227 | 53.3%121 W · 106 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Under | 52c | 889.79$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$462.69 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 599.98$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.99 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd51b…9606backed Under | 53c | 470$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.1 | 225 | 48.4%109 W · 116 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked Over | 49c | 393.69$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200.78 | 124 | 49.2%61 W · 63 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c85…6950backed Under | 52c | 392.31$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 47c | 226.99$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.31 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc81a…c368backed Under | 35c | 149.99$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.5 | 404 | 46.5%188 W · 216 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Over | 65c | 127$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.45 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 49c | 100$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c97…82adbacked Under | 53c | 92.45$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -6.0wins | -0.09per pick | 52cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc278…a116backed Under | 53c | 90.3$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.89 | 841 | 40.2%338 W · 503 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Under | 52c | 85.23$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.07 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 59c | 72.7$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.55 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 51c | 59$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under | 37c | 57.91$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.38 | 265 | 53.2%141 W · 124 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Under | 51c | 51.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe574…1b45backed Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Over | 54c | 46.3$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.3 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 46c | 46.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 52c | 39.37$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 51c | 39.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 52c | 38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Over | 47c | 29.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.8 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 48c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bbd…98f2backed Over | 49c | 25$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.75 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed Over | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.15 | 393 | 44.3%174 W · 219 L | -22.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 14.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 19.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 21.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-10.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.