MLB · resolved market
Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcc3bc8adb36e52874745de54130f08d54a1eee5807e3b96de301e14a3005651a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pittsburgh Piratesof Pittsburgh Pirates, Cincinnati Reds
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,387
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,292
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,387 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Cincinnati Reds | 73c | 3,418$2,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,484.65 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 1,660$1,052 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.07 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 48c | 1,468$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.47 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 27c | 1,395$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,021.72 | 753 | 44.1%332 W · 421 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 26c | 1,228$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$909.37 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 27c | 1,223$336 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.91 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 965.33$599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.51 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Cincinnati Reds | 62c | 938.46$582 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$581.84 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 20c | 627.94$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.35 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 560.98$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.81 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf41a…ea2bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 473.42$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.25 | 672 | 50.1%337 W · 335 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 404.74$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$254.98 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x389d…a58fbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 300$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6fb…ee11backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 236.14$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.13 | 655 | 49.3%323 W · 332 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 59c | 160.46$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.5 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 160.32$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.32 | 443 | 48.5%215 W · 228 L | -7.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x938e…9b66backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 158.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 481 | 50.7%244 W · 237 L | -19.3wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Cincinnati Reds | 78c | 151.27$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.75 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 135$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.7 | 564 | 40.4%228 W · 336 L | -16.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 26c | 132.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.7 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21b…9e94backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 119.05$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 486 | 51%248 W · 238 L | -18.0wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 36c | 100$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x904c…4172backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 22c | 97.4$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.91 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6af1…af5bbacked Cincinnati Reds | 79c | 94.49$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.39 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Cincinnati Reds | 77c | 86.77$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.81 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56ac…d77ebacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 81.5$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 716 | 50.7%363 W · 353 L | +9.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 79c | 67.16$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.94 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Cincinnati Reds | 34c | 62.63$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 54.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.64 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.86 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f50…069bbacked Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.24 | 163 | 45.4%74 W · 89 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e71…7913backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.62per pick | 38cpaid | +163.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 37.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Cincinnati Reds | 40c | 35.91$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Cincinnati Reds | 42c | 33.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc96b…438abacked Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 274 | 52.6%144 W · 130 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 38c | 28.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Cincinnati Reds | 61c | 27.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.03 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2827…64f6backed Pittsburgh Pirates | 46c | 25.39$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.74 | 207 | 64.7%134 W · 73 L | +21.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Cincinnati Reds | 63c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Cincinnati Reds | 70c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcf…c678backed Cincinnati Reds | 78c | 15.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 246 | 54.9%135 W · 111 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cb…3636backed Cincinnati Reds | 79c | 14.27$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.27 | 84 | 60.7%51 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-1.5)this page
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesPittsburgh Pirates won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 14.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 19.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 21.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5Over won
- Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Cincinnati Reds (-1.5)Pittsburgh Pirates won
- Spread: Pittsburgh Pirates (-10.5)Cincinnati Reds won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh PiratesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.