Champions League · resolved market
Will the match between Barcelona and Bayern Munich end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb68216ee425ab7e9b1a676884cb7f64ec67b9b5d733a48b540a4c04f3d50a81e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,100
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,773
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,100 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee00…cea1backed Yes | 11c | 3,167$348 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$348.41 | 170 | 48.2%82 W · 88 L | +7.2wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 74c | 1,611$1,193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.74 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0aaa…77b7backed Yes | 25c | 1,290$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.69 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…d268backed Yes | 26c | 1,181$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 22c | 710.53$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.68 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff0…46e3backed Yes | 23c | 473.79$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.97 | 54 | 55.6%30 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed Yes | 26c | 386.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1474…a0f3backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a24…7402backed Yes | 26c | 300$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05f5…a008backed Yes | 26c | 290.38$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67d2…6ffbbacked Yes | 7c | 285.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcad0…6426backed Yes | 26c | 280.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4120…c514backed Yes | 26c | 280.77$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa040…2c23backed Yes | 26c | 253.85$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00d5…6b9bbacked Yes | 26c | 253.85$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd911…ca22backed No | 77c | 155.84$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d4c…f7debacked Yes | 18c | 154.11$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.74 | 46 | 37%17 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7992…9a2dbacked No | 78c | 153.88$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.85 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc12f…0d70backed No | 75c | 153.33$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc9…fc5dbacked No | 77c | 153.25$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…56dfbacked No | 75c | 152$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfddc…23c5backed No | 79c | 142.7$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906d…9550backed No | 79c | 142.59$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.94 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2a3…8cc0backed No | 75c | 141.33$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c31…b674backed No | 78c | 140.77$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6235…85b8backed No | 75c | 139.98$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5119…cdd2backed No | 75c | 133.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…9198backed Yes | 26c | 132.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.55 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x15fd…3aabbacked No | 75c | 130.67$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f97…c84cbacked No | 75c | 125.33$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326e…53b0backed No | 75c | 120$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x195f…086bbacked No | 75c | 117.33$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0da5…5adfbacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51b1…bce2backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -10.3wins | -0.19per pick | 37cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xde76…29aebacked Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.3wins | -0.19per pick | 44cpaid | -38%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x46ee…eb1ebacked No | 78c | 85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f1…f229backed Yes | 26c | 80.77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.17per pick | 37cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d57…b03dbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ad8…4cb1backed Yes | 26c | 61.54$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4590…989abacked Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7942…25a5backed No | 77c | 49.68$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab4b…f1dabacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee5…fb4bbacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed No | 76c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the match between Barcelona and Bayern Munich end in a draw?this page
- Will Barcelona beat Bayern Munich?Yes won
- Will Bayern Munich beat Barcelona?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.