Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb693016a5cff7d0ae5c3656af0a33710990ab0a274adc7697ffd1f2b89a2cf06
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,631
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,631 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdc4b…db02backed Yes | 1c | 4,230$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.36 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 5c | 1,808$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.13 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…4105backed Yes | 2c | 825.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.59 | 337 | 26.4%89 W · 248 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 17c | 467.89$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.67 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 10c | 440.17$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 3c | 404.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 322.89$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 28c | 260.61$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.11 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 15c | 241.93$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 78c | 199.99$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.99 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…c8e4backed No | 79c | 196.8$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.89 | 66 | 54.5%36 W · 30 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 76c | 192.57$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.41 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 20c | 176$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.2 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Yes | 8c | 175.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d78…5678backed Yes | 27c | 157.8$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 17c | 156.72$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.1 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 79c | 151.61$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.07 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 141.73$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.51 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2e4…6fecbacked Yes | 22c | 139.03$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5264…9a63backed Yes | 14c | 138.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 740 | 23.9%177 W · 563 L | +23.6wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…4d38backed Yes | 25c | 137.81$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 29c | 131.61$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.9 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 23c | 130.06$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0b…30aebacked Yes | 24c | 128.26$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.62 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 11c | 128.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.23 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 14c | 115.04$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 80c | 112.64$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.59 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 36c | 109.1$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.11 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed Yes | 28c | 107.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…a79bbacked Yes | 20c | 106.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | -7.0wins | -0.05per pick | 21cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed No | 79c | 100.75$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.75 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf9c2…d167backed Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.91 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 26c | 99.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.82 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7908…4f35backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 33 | 9.1%3 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.09per pick | 18cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…1e6dbacked Yes | 22c | 91.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 327 | 38.2%125 W · 202 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed No | 73c | 77.31$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.21 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 79c | 76$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe472…4360backed Yes | 33c | 74.76$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 53 | 28.3%15 W · 38 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6d0…d21ebacked Yes | 26c | 72.27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.79 | 183 | 37.7%69 W · 114 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 23c | 70$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40d6…1935backed No | 79c | 67.44$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.17 | 45 | 66.7%30 W · 15 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked Yes | 28c | 64.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a04…b254backed Yes | 19c | 63$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 598 | 18.4%110 W · 488 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 77c | 59.99$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.68 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 31c | 58.68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 32c | 57.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa21f…2b1fbacked Yes | 26c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab3e…86c9backed No | 77c | 51.99$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.99 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 75cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93f3…5d04backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 75c | 49.23$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed No | 77c | 49$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.27 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3edb…aa1ebacked Yes | 28c | 45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a2c…64f0backed Yes | 37c | 41.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 77 | 14.3%11 W · 66 L | -6.7wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3865…fcbebacked No | 70c | 35.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.48 | 1,002 | 60.9%610 W · 392 L | -26.2wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2895…2574backed No | 72c | 35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.82 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +5.2wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 78c | 34.9$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…0199backed No | 76c | 32.44$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.81 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe93…8d0ebacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.1 | 270 | 50.4%136 W · 134 L | -13.3wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcafd…b861backed No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 72 | 72.2%52 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…c70bbacked No | 79c | 29.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 549 | 66.7%366 W · 183 L | -27.1wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc980…4e72backed No | 78c | 28.5$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.12per pick | 63cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 79c | 27.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.77 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe04e…c564backed No | 76c | 24.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 78c | 22.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 67c | 22.04$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x500e…7c9abacked No | 77c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.6 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4be0…c37dbacked No | 71c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.22 | 190 | 58.9%112 W · 78 L | -8.2wins | -0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x95fe…8c71backed No | 75c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 72cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 22?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.