Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 22?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe4f6810c300c5682e357999a299d94821bd1ecf5efbf37134bbb6272ee46c2f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,831
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $40,831 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 92 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5012…9a5cbacked No | 1c | 4,668$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfac2…f35fbacked No | 18c | 869.96$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.59 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.12per pick | 58cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ee7…9c56backed Yes | 79c | 631.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 12c | 458.56$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 4c | 448.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 22c | 395.34$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.44 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 33c | 323.09$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.56 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 41c | 239.14$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.8 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 75c | 237.94$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.84 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 13c | 220.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.21 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 55c | 208.34$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.57 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 41c | 173.08$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.34 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 24c | 169$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.79 | 102 | 37.3%38 W · 64 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed No | 24c | 166.83$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x888f…23f5backed Yes | 66c | 150.77$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.01 | 173 | 38.2%66 W · 107 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6af…4219backed Yes | 57c | 149.94$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.94 | 506 | 48.8%247 W · 259 L | +25.1wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 77c | 129.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.08 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 54c | 129.07$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.06 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…8e67backed Yes | 40c | 124.99$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9466…4d38backed Yes | 49c | 121.84$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.84 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 39cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 53c | 119.13$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 30c | 117$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 44c | 107.26$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…8ba5backed Yes | 49c | 102.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.42 | 424 | 38.9%165 W · 259 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32f0…c659backed No | 38c | 100.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.59 | 235 | 47.7%112 W · 123 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 25c | 99.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.69 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 35c | 97.83$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.04 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca41…8486backed Yes | 28c | 95.21$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.21 | 79 | 39.2%31 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf674…8564backed Yes | 51c | 92$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 162 | 34%55 W · 107 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdf2…0b9abacked Yes | 59c | 85.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.27 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 30c | 83.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.03 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 61c | 82.38$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.4 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfba8…8d3cbacked No | 24c | 76.07$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.89 | 90 | 55.6%50 W · 40 L | -7.7wins | -0.09per pick | 64cpaid | -16%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x27cd…c7adbacked Yes | 68c | 73.14$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.14 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -5.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -33.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 46c | 71.36$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64b0…ab64backed Yes | 69c | 66.1$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 294 | 59.5%175 W · 119 L | +20.7wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 38c | 60.34$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.26 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 56c | 57.28$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.96 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa26f…1071backed Yes | 60c | 56$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 376 | 44.9%169 W · 207 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9b…994dbacked Yes | 58c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.2 | 166 | 34.9%58 W · 108 L | -6.1wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ae…73ddbacked Yes | 62c | 51.93$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.94 | 75 | 18.7%14 W · 61 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d3d…9516backed No | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82c5…3071backed No | 72c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e2…6bf6backed Yes | 51c | 48.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.01 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb6…2ff6backed No | 52c | 47.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 99 | 43.4%43 W · 56 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 51c | 45.95$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.31 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 35c | 45.05$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xa279…c30dbacked Yes | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.48 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.6wins | +0.21per pick | 37cpaid | +43.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a1…3840backed Yes | 47c | 42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.33 | 1,153 | 27.1%312 W · 841 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes | 50c | 41.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 575 | 45%259 W · 316 L | +26.6wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade1…9040backed Yes | 37c | 40.68$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.68 | 338 | 39.9%135 W · 203 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…7c0abacked Yes | 46c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 156 | 26.3%41 W · 115 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…2037backed Yes | 54c | 39.85$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.44 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 78c | 38.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6548…9108backed Yes | 42c | 38$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.04 | 49 | 63.3%31 W · 18 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37e7…4a56backed Yes | 52c | 35.87$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.34 | 116 | 37.1%43 W · 73 L | -5.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 71c | 34.21$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.29 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b1f…9ff2backed Yes | 53c | 33.69$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.69 | 323 | 52.9%171 W · 152 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 36c | 33.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x919d…d88cbacked Yes | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 145 | 44.8%65 W · 80 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 49c | 30.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 60c | 30.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x148f…2f09backed Yes | 41c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.7 | 71 | 40.8%29 W · 42 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5644…ecbbbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18 | 237 | 38%90 W · 147 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 44c | 30$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df8…4005backed No | 57c | 29.67$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 108 | 41.7%45 W · 63 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 61c | 29.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3066…1e7bbacked Yes | 43c | 29.53$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 92 | 70.7%65 W · 27 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 59cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 44c | 29.11$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.3 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 59c | 26.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.49 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked Yes | 76c | 26.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.22 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 50c | 26.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83fe…23d9backed No | 67c | 26$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.42 | 327 | 60.6%198 W · 129 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfeb3…8d26backed Yes | 50c | 25.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.95 | 69 | 50.7%35 W · 34 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ecc…d023backed Yes | 70c | 24.96$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.61 | 106 | 47.2%50 W · 56 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd052…d930backed Yes | 77c | 24.72$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8267…f7b7backed No | 62c | 24.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.11 | 116 | 56.9%66 W · 50 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 56c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x78c7…d4cdbacked Yes | 50c | 22$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x242c…44d7backed Yes | 78c | 20.47$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8319…96f4backed Yes | 50c | 20.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.18 | 67 | 17.9%12 W · 55 L | -10.9wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x3487…11f5backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.8 | 96 | 53.1%51 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbf40…9e76backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe5…8b99backed No | 56c | 18.54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 71c | 17.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.98 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d81…259bbacked Yes | 80c | 17.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 97 | 56.7%55 W · 42 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 15°C on March 22?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 11°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 13°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 17°C on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 8°C or below on March 22?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 9°C on March 22?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.