Fifa International · resolved market
Belgium to win the second half?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6b1c827cce2fcfecdda1ac3247bb40e71670c73df31626203f571905f10f3b3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,691
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,538
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,691 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd0e1…99dbbacked No | 37c | 2,119$784 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.91 | 580 | 49.1%285 W · 295 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf531…121cbacked Yes | 63c | 1,762$1,110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,110 | 179 | 44.1%79 W · 100 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 41c | 1,209$499 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$709.75 | 4,027 | 38.9%1,568 W · 2,459 L | -26.6wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 61c | 1,068$655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$655.18 | 8,614 | 29.2%2,518 W · 6,096 L | -166.6wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99d7…6435backed Yes | 50c | 948$472 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$472.08 | 858 | 51.2%439 W · 419 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8762…cc57backed Yes | 64c | 695.53$445 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$445.14 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 43c | 485.28$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.61 | 2,805 | 55.1%1,546 W · 1,259 L | +70.4wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked No | 49c | 433.13$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$222.02 | 2,533 | 46.3%1,174 W · 1,359 L | +12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e9e…208cbacked No | 46c | 329.06$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.69 | 39 | 43.6%17 W · 22 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 42c | 296.26$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.57 | 3,731 | 51.8%1,931 W · 1,800 L | +55.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 49c | 247.71$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.96 | 2,524 | 42.8%1,081 W · 1,443 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked No | 42c | 208.76$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.08 | 2,411 | 53%1,278 W · 1,133 L | +75.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5797…8636backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 32.1%36 W · 76 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f41…5ffcbacked Yes | 61c | 169.05$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.12 | 342 | 49.1%168 W · 174 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +33.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 17c | 160.02$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.12 | 2,327 | 18.1%422 W · 1,905 L | -363.0wins | -0.16per pick | 34cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked No | 45c | 156.98$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.22 | 2,793 | 46.6%1,301 W · 1,492 L | -10.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked No | 40c | 103$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.99 | 1,492 | 41%612 W · 880 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48cf…c7dfbacked Yes | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 128 | 46.1%59 W · 69 L | -12.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Yes | 49c | 100$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 246 | 54.1%133 W · 113 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e8f…6e47backed Yes | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 150 | 42%63 W · 87 L | -6.2wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3f…66e5backed Yes | 60c | 77.15$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.14 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b7f…d56cbacked Yes | 51c | 74$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 825 | 37.1%306 W · 519 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40a1…91d7backed Yes | 57c | 70.18$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 32cpaid | -86.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed No | 42c | 65.93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.24 | 2,380 | 53.3%1,269 W · 1,111 L | +76.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 58c | 60$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.8 | 135 | 40%54 W · 81 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f17…b55dbacked Yes | 58c | 58$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.64 | 121 | 45.5%55 W · 66 L | +9.0wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8728…0882backed Yes | 56c | 57.98$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.47 | 426 | 40.1%171 W · 255 L | -7.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09fe…76eebacked No | 44c | 57.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.13 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c25…c3bebacked No | 43c | 52.63$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 706 | 48.2%340 W · 366 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x064e…b502backed Yes | 57c | 52.63$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 62.2%23 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda4e…a8d7backed Yes | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -34%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0da4…9170backed Yes | 60c | 49.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52c8…9b69backed Yes | 61c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.2 | 473 | 21.6%102 W · 371 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac78…a7b7backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 123 | 30.9%38 W · 85 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd81…3874backed Yes | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 121 | 27.3%33 W · 88 L | -5.8wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf6f…9f90backed Yes | 58c | 30.69$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.8 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb8b…37e0backed Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 131 | 35.9%47 W · 84 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f03…f7f8backed Yes | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f14…77bebacked Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd33a…a409backed Yes | 64c | 23.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 103 | 57.3%59 W · 44 L | +7.0wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd975…7e89backed Yes | 57c | 22.81$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Belgium to win the second half?this page
- Belgium vs. IR Iran: Second half draw?Yes won
- IR Iran to win the second half?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.