NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Devils: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6d1956bb8824b4717ca38802bc66d3545e217cdf55af4ca54c0e0ac8ace5234
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,919
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,973
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,919 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9bd3…41f8backed Under | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fb…8feebacked Over | 55c | 850$468 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.5 | 190 | 50.5%96 W · 94 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 50c | 784$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$392 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 50c | 548.8$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.4 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 45c | 475$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.75 | 769 | 50.3%387 W · 382 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 57c | 460$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.5 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 45c | 388$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.6 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 50c | 267.2$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.6 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 57c | 182$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.93 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a8…58fdbacked Under | 25c | 171.01$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.22 | 115 | 37.4%43 W · 72 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Under | 42c | 160$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.02 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84d9…76dbbacked Over | 54c | 147.36$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.79 | 485 | 52.2%253 W · 232 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 55c | 136$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.3 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 18c | 117.47$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Over | 74c | 101.08$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.95 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0576…6232backed Under | 45c | 76.65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.17 | 456 | 51.5%235 W · 221 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 45c | 51$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.95 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 189 | 41.8%79 W · 110 L | -10.2wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 45c | 49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.93 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcab…b9bbbacked Over | 68c | 48$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.6 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -4.8wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 45c | 35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215b…1776backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88cf…39e1backed Under | 47c | 25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8070…2f12backed Under | 47c | 24.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c0…3710backed Under | 46c | 24.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.49 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.47per pick | 67cpaid | -72.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeac5…273ebacked Over | 53c | 24.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bed…f7f1backed Over | 53c | 24.66$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…5b0fbacked Over | 53c | 24.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +87.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaadd…a67abacked Under | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69ef…7c14backed Under | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x537e…e651backed Under | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2db8…e062backed Over | 53c | 23.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.08 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dd…aa25backed Over | 53c | 23.41$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +103%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…a92bbacked Under | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b88…d36dbacked Under | 47c | 23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7215…5f06backed Over | 53c | 22.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…e6dfbacked Under | 47c | 21.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8138…1040backed Over | 53c | 21.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48a1…21bebacked Over | 53c | 20.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8448…e8f2backed Over | 53c | 20.05$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcafa…a763backed Over | 53c | 19.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Flyers vs. Devils: O/U 5.5this page
- Flyers vs. DevilsFlyers won
- Flyers vs. Devils: O/U 6.5Under won
- Flyers vs. Devils: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)Flyers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.