Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6d3bd3426260a23a7f7bf0e66c7430903a20a2431c45b54d888c24f57f653de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,213
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,852
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,213 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 31c | 916.96$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$287.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 68c | 574.22$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked No | 69c | 447.05$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.67 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x69b3…14f8backed No | 76c | 400.36$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.03 | 124 | 66.1%82 W · 42 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 74c | 268.98$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.09 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 8c | 245.87$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 34c | 188.81$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.46 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 35c | 163.82$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.6 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 28c | 161.32$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…ff6ebacked Yes | 10c | 142$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.83 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 25c | 134.28$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.57 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 71c | 119.25$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.98 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 44c | 102.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.31 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 72c | 97.18$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 27c | 74.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf21…e0c1backed No | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 111 | 63.1%70 W · 41 L | +9.3wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +20%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0977…53ccbacked No | 56c | 72.76$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 69 | 66.7%46 W · 23 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4699…695abacked No | 68c | 70.2$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 120 | 72.5%87 W · 33 L | +8.3wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked Yes | 39c | 70$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.16 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 59.96$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.32 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07b6…0ab8backed Yes | 31c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 136 | 36%49 W · 87 L | -4.1wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 46c | 43.13$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 38.6$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed No | 54c | 33.25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.29 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 32.52$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.52 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…3ee2backed No | 70c | 23.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4476…c5fcbacked No | 51c | 20.24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 425 | 47.5%202 W · 223 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb431…82ecbacked No | 70c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.95 | 297 | 69.4%206 W · 91 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 68cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 72c | 19.39$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.43 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 67c | 18.72$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 17.05$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 73c | 16.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.38 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e28…4983backed No | 71c | 16.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.66 | 336 | 54.2%182 W · 154 L | -9.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 72c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.91 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 81°F or below on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 98-99°F on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.