Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdf7180af8e7050514906d5f6b81fb7d45e12d1cc6d81ef17ace26d5eaa6fe442
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,108
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,159
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,108 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 24c | 373.45$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.1 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 10c | 327.76$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.76 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…64bdbacked Yes | 29c | 275$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 71c | 255$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked Yes | 25c | 174.66$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.67 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 10c | 167.69$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x294f…ff6ebacked Yes | 10c | 145.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -21%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 23c | 136.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.94 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 18c | 110.28$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 142 | 22.5%32 W · 110 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 24c | 105.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.56 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 12c | 86.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 25c | 69.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.18 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef1b…764fbacked Yes | 19c | 66.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.53 | 78 | 50%39 W · 39 L | +7.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 75c | 50.32$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28c1…b087backed Yes | 25c | 40.12$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 162 | 20.4%33 W · 129 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 79c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…7804backed No | 74c | 38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 78 | 57.7%45 W · 33 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x694d…3ee2backed No | 74c | 25.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 34 | 67.6%23 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 69cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x404d…84cdbacked No | 74c | 21.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.49 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 78c | 15.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.34 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89e…7219backed No | 74c | 14.24$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb80c…827bbacked No | 73c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.82 | 277 | 54.9%152 W · 125 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 81°F or below on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 27?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 98-99°F on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.