Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x31894491bdab10f91bc1cd6df4a563747e2294ba7afbfc024d12ec8600fa5ca3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,167
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,483
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,167 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5fa8…39c2backed Yes | 2c | 850.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$833.9 | 103 | 11.7%12 W · 91 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +32%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82f3…9f82backed Yes | 63c | 771.81$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.15 | 1,455 | 24.7%359 W · 1,096 L | -33.3wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08ce…f301backed No | 7c | 600.06$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.12 | 353 | 23.2%82 W · 271 L | -16.4wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -54.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 12c | 359.09$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$316.65 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7300…e52cbacked No | 4c | 358.13$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 2,214 | 20.7%458 W · 1,756 L | -60.8wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5548…9cc6backed Yes | 74c | 326.21$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.25 | 197 | 57.4%113 W · 84 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 24c | 321.2$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.58 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 42c | 310.59$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.99 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 28c | 226.63$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.87 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 6c | 217.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.52 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 24c | 213.54$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.85 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…8b5ebacked No | 34c | 209.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.92 | 141 | 51.8%73 W · 68 L | +10.3wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 48c | 197.4$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.21 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 30c | 187.39$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb07…5b0fbacked No | 25c | 142.92$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.3 | 120 | 60%72 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 27c | 125.53$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.39 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf17…5c20backed No | 10c | 120$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 1,787 | 25.7%460 W · 1,327 L | +132.5wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6297…517ebacked No | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1,643 | 27.8%456 W · 1,187 L | +117.6wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +33%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb185…48c1backed No | 15c | 99.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 197 | 20.8%41 W · 156 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 30c | 65.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.47 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…a526backed Yes | 78c | 65.21$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.36 | 154 | 66.9%103 W · 51 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No | 58c | 57.78$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.54 | 799 | 47.9%383 W · 416 L | -24.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.11 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked Yes | 69c | 42.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.94 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d0…d991backed Yes | 57c | 39.38$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 55 | 60%33 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed No | 29c | 38.9$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 20cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked No | 58c | 34.76$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2250…4cd7backed Yes | 53c | 26.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.55 | 119 | 50.4%60 W · 59 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2849…0329backed Yes | 70c | 19.98$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.01 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.26per pick | 64cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaf5…41abbacked Yes | 69c | 19.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.08 | 472 | 39.8%188 W · 284 L | +31.2wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 78c | 16.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on July 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 81°F or below on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 88-89°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 90-91°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 92-93°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 94-95°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 96-97°F on July 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 98-99°F on July 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.