Stocks · resolved market
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $5.00-$6.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6f072c57a455d965b10564d97f66a6d2c61d4e40fb0bc3b4c69d5e8e5123438
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $158,936
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $158,936 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c9c…dd21backed Yes | 3c | 4,491$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.49 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdf7e…b302backed Yes | 1c | 2,921$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7d5…9348backed Yes | 4c | 2,710$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa548…09c7backed Yes | 2c | 2,636$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a53…5510backed Yes | 4c | 2,596$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x873e…8a55backed Yes | 3c | 2,514$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7739…55c9backed Yes | 11c | 2,388$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9093…7787backed Yes | 3c | 2,352$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec9d…3033backed Yes | 2c | 2,342$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…d99abacked Yes | 1c | 2,264$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.17 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7254…1eabbacked Yes | 4c | 2,211$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c6…1ee2backed Yes | 1c | 2,139$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9de0…6954backed Yes | 11c | 2,050$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70dd…18cfbacked Yes | 11c | 1,948$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf962…c284backed Yes | 3c | 1,848$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ff…f3c0backed Yes | 3c | 1,731$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb808…ef66backed Yes | 4c | 1,510$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc53b…871ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,495$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c15…443fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,421$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x527c…3c43backed Yes | 3c | 1,317$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6341…bca9backed Yes | 1c | 1,306$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…bfd4backed Yes | 1c | 1,181$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f83…8390backed Yes | 1c | 1,157$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4452…c7cabacked Yes | 1c | 1,074$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 48c | 936.53$451 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.61 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6e…f83dbacked Yes | 1c | 903$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…023fbacked Yes | 3c | 874$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc16a…917bbacked Yes | 3c | 816$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd4c…a9eebacked Yes | 3c | 809$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbfee…12d5backed Yes | 3c | 740$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a57…fff4backed Yes | 2c | 632$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed Yes | 45c | 403.8$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.16 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc48e…6a05backed Yes | 4c | 369.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 38c | 283.24$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.63 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 22c | 253.48$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.15 | 1,779 | 49.1%873 W · 906 L | +143.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb12a…3757backed Yes | 4c | 252$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5802…cd40backed Yes | 56c | 178.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed Yes | 12c | 117.42$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 17cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 63c | 81$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 38c | 72.26$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.11 | 159 | 47.8%76 W · 83 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 40c | 72.11$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.96 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…4e3dbacked Yes | 52c | 67.56$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 51c | 60$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.6 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 33c | 52.5$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 46c | 47$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 863 | 38.1%329 W · 534 L | -43.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf212…a810backed Yes | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 52c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 59c | 22.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.03 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8643…82a0backed Yes | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.09 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8dcd…74c6backed Yes | 56c | 18.18$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 52cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $5.00-$6.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?this page
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $3.00-$4.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $4.00-$5.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?Yes won
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $6.00-$7.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.