Stocks · resolved market
Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $4.00-$5.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x24b81845c9739cbc75d33225426d1e42057585a1af13382f6fb5315b6676ad7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Stocksevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $98,701
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,701 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Stocks is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Stocks | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1755…5aacbacked Yes | 54c | 3,409$1,841 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,568.5 | 1,326 | 46.9%622 W · 704 L | +41.8wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc2f9…e193backed No | 1c | 2,091$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa548…09c7backed No | 1c | 1,966$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca6…73e3backed Yes | 50c | 1,958$979 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$979 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.51per pick | 50cpaid | +102%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcefd…5069backed No | 1c | 1,778$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab1…b84bbacked No | 1c | 1,686$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb25…a01fbacked No | 3c | 1,269$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd076…d784backed No | 3c | 1,130$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42a…c156backed No | 3c | 1,086$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e5…a9f4backed No | 3c | 1,023$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6364…8316backed No | 52c | 787.67$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.21 | 310 | 36.1%112 W · 198 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8879…bc0bbacked No | 3c | 785$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2609…6617backed No | 3c | 775$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2970…f89bbacked No | 3c | 701$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8895…29a5backed No | 3c | 649$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70af…e586backed No | 3c | 637$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d8…ea7cbacked Yes | 53c | 597.96$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.22 | 1,783 | 49%874 W · 909 L | +142.6wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 52c | 517.99$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.87 | 26 | 11.5%3 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -74.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbb…8e8ebacked No | 3c | 475$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88b0…b118backed Yes | 50c | 342.16$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.08 | 565 | 48.7%275 W · 290 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 54c | 289.48$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.28 | 81 | 40.7%33 W · 48 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00cf…7184backed Yes | 53c | 157.03$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8cb4…b997backed No | 48c | 151.81$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.26 | 990 | 38%376 W · 614 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 17c | 117.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 17cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb6b…c5cebacked Yes | 51c | 110$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5c…5775backed Yes | 42c | 110$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.25 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +59.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 48c | 106.6$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.73 | 170 | 49.4%84 W · 86 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcad5…583ebacked Yes | 49c | 101.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +103.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x622f…9992backed Yes | 52c | 100$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48 | 104 | 42.3%44 W · 60 L | -7.1wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa1…70c5backed Yes | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -55.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa67d…c6f9backed Yes | 50c | 99.03$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.1 | 77 | 27.3%21 W · 56 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb846…823bbacked Yes | 52c | 81.84$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.35 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d8b…00a3backed No | 49c | 70$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.1 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ae…be02backed Yes | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf877…77e1backed Yes | 52c | 67$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.16 | 29 | 86.2%25 W · 4 L | +4.8wins | +0.16per pick | 70cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 20c | 63.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.66 | 1,444 | 8.8%127 W · 1,317 L | -53.5wins | -0.04per pick | 12cpaid | -59.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed0…9c4fbacked Yes | 38c | 59.96$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.18 | 243 | 56.8%138 W · 105 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3576…c3f8backed No | 48c | 57.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbad3…7715backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf212…a810backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 44cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 35c | 44.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.82 | 274 | 29.2%80 W · 194 L | -16.6wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 37c | 42.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 78 | 44.9%35 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -17%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb44…ec30backed No | 47c | 39.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc7…d484backed Yes | 53c | 37.49$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32df…cce8backed No | 58c | 34$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf556…d2c2backed Yes | 77c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.47 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.14per pick | 69cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8434…92f7backed Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.7wins | +0.68per pick | 32cpaid | +224.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x84cb…4b77backed No | 63c | 28.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 43c | 27.06$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.45 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fe…1975backed Yes | 76c | 26.32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056c…5066backed No | 55c | 25.45$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9631…a38cbacked Yes | 47c | 22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.37per pick | 64cpaid | +68.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7b…173bbacked No | 53c | 22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe647…c9aabacked Yes | 64c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.86 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Stocks and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $4.00-$5.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?this page
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $1.00-$2.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $3.00-$4.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $5.00-$6.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
- Will Opendoor (OPEN) close at $6.00-$7.00 on the final day of trading of the week of Mar 9 – Mar 13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.