Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb6f580fe83704d55b4f74a38059ba5ac2170745b0309f164870cec281bf995ac
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,134
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,134 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 43c | 204.62$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.68 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 46c | 162.13$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.55 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 48c | 145.38$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.75 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 54c | 142.44$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.39 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 41c | 128$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.35 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 117.07$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.55 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa48c…5506backed No | 34c | 116.66$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | -6.7wins | -0.31per pick | 49cpaid | -57%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 49c | 97.05$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 18c | 89.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 41c | 84.8$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaab7…dd3bbacked Yes | 51c | 82$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.38 | 159 | 40.3%64 W · 95 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 35c | 77.1$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.8 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 42c | 72.19$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 54c | 70$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ea…c336backed Yes | 52c | 67.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | +7.8wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 34c | 66.49$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.38 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 48c | 63.47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.57 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 64c | 60.7$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.64 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 50c | 60$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 42c | 55$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.95 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 55c | 51.88$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 50.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 50c | 49.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f61…840abacked Yes | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.16 | 375 | 70.7%265 W · 110 L | +62.7wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 45c | 46.58$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.62 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 57c | 46.51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.51 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 42c | 42$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4338…f330backed Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.67 | 53 | 18.9%10 W · 43 L | -5.6wins | -0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 41.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9568…96afbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 19 | 57.9%11 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed Yes | 50c | 39.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.99 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc9…bfbcbacked No | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 185 | 65.4%121 W · 64 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed No | 60c | 39.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.43 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8b…b7b8backed Yes | 66c | 35.27$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.13 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | +4.8wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85d2…7479backed Yes | 66c | 34.47$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.73 | 532 | 58.6%312 W · 220 L | +45.1wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…a9d2backed No | 30c | 33.46$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 292 | 19.5%57 W · 235 L | +12.3wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 41c | 33$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…5961backed Yes | 69c | 32.56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 73 | 61.6%45 W · 28 L | +8.2wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x71f7…bc29backed Yes | 71c | 32.21$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 52c | 32.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.53 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 36c | 29.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.9 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed Yes | 49c | 28.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 49c | 27.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.59 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 60c | 27.62$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 47c | 26.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 61c | 24.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26cb…a394backed No | 61c | 24.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 124 | 37.1%46 W · 78 L | -17.5wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x1c3b…2bf8backed Yes | 52c | 24.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.54 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -5.0wins | -0.18per pick | 53cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7eb5…9400backed No | 64c | 21.5$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 527 | 58.8%310 W · 217 L | +13.2wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 78c | 20.29$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc4e…7dbbbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 386 | 55.7%215 W · 171 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c18…32c3backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,043 | 62.9%656 W · 387 L | -11.9wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 65c | 18.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42b7…abffbacked Yes | 72c | 15.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.49 | 306 | 65%199 W · 107 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.