Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 15?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x45fdd52b2e52c646bce14766ce6212fabd13da96c94d8114a04bfd027a69327c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,264
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,891
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,264 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23e2…3b86backed Yes | 2c | 1,816$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 24c | 455.03$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.39 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf361…783abacked No | 76c | 319.76$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.89 | 77 | 63.6%49 W · 28 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a67…5d96backed Yes | 22c | 299.93$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.99 | 158 | 41.8%66 W · 92 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked Yes | 28c | 225.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed No | 69c | 203.35$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.09 | 886 | 28.9%256 W · 630 L | -22.6wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0b…0020backed No | 72c | 200$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 389 | 30.3%118 W · 271 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 63c | 177.23$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.95 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 79c | 174.83$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.46 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 31c | 127.48$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.37 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6bd…2c9dbacked Yes | 19c | 107.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 213 | 40.8%87 W · 126 L | +23.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +34%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 48c | 103.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 34c | 100.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.58 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe5a9…2c34backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.6 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 32c | 99.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.6 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 21c | 90.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0f…c1e6backed Yes | 25c | 90.66$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 57 | 36.8%21 W · 36 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed No | 78c | 88.66$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 496 | 46%228 W · 268 L | +16.9wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 25c | 79.66$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 35c | 77.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.61 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3a…3df7backed Yes | 29c | 76.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 452 | 53.3%241 W · 211 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 18c | 75.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x41e5…e283backed No | 67c | 73.39$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.43 | 1,282 | 56.7%727 W · 555 L | -28.5wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1570…de29backed No | 70c | 71.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 440 | 58.2%256 W · 184 L | +14.1wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 71.3$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.36 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 66c | 69.23$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.7 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1906…c647backed No | 76c | 65.79$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 20 | 75%15 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44ed…21fdbacked No | 77c | 64.76$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa09d…af80backed No | 78c | 64.1$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.1 | 211 | 50.7%107 W · 104 L | +6.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a87…911fbacked Yes | 21c | 63.89$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 52 | 57.7%30 W · 22 L | +6.8wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 34c | 60.6$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 24c | 52.04$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0751…073abacked Yes | 24c | 51.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 192 | 55.2%106 W · 86 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 552 | 61.6%340 W · 212 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9502…ba22backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 111 | 46.8%52 W · 59 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 68c | 46.86$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.12 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 27c | 45.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b6…3b38backed No | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 471 | 75.6%356 W · 115 L | +2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 75cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 67c | 40.74$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78c2…53adbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 87 | 37.9%33 W · 54 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 32c | 39.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 28c | 39.02$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 77c | 34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x254a…dacbbacked No | 67c | 31.2$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 169 | 50.9%86 W · 83 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd7f3…52d8backed No | 78c | 30.35$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 190 | 71.6%136 W · 54 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed No | 62c | 30.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.59 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd8e1…716dbacked Yes | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 67c | 27.6$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 70c | 26.32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.94 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 40c | 26.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf15b…8c10backed No | 76c | 23.62$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9a…0cd4backed No | 53c | 21.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.06 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c28…66b0backed No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2840…ae07backed No | 79c | 18.15$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2349…1646backed No | 66c | 18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.04 | 482 | 61.8%298 W · 184 L | +43.5wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 74c | 14.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 72c | 14.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.88 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 15?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 35°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 15?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 38°C on July 15?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on July 15?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.