Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 40-41°F on January 27?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7007917738684b5e040c678438ebd2e61a86695bc64403ca5fd33ded0ba3846
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,963
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbdcd…3e9cbacked Yes | 54c | 1,528$820 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$708.22 | 833 | 32.1%267 W · 566 L | +24.4wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…193fbacked Yes | 67c | 844.14$570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.52 | 900 | 40.7%366 W · 534 L | +112.3wins | +0.12per pick | 28cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb96b…61afbacked No | 23c | 799.88$182 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.95 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c22…e27bbacked No | 49c | 537.32$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.53 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.7wins | -0.44per pick | 69cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9513…1dc6backed No | 36c | 529.46$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.04 | 85 | 18.8%16 W · 69 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf05b…d0b7backed No | 33c | 526.08$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.43 | 296 | 42.9%127 W · 169 L | +19.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb4c…53fdbacked No | 41c | 456.68$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 64cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x162e…986bbacked Yes | 71c | 274.5$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.52 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab75…8e17backed Yes | 46c | 263.12$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.18 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed Yes | 67c | 254.64$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.17 | 81 | 76.5%62 W · 19 L | +14.7wins | +0.18per pick | 58cpaid | +39%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed No | 11c | 155.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 599 | 23.5%141 W · 458 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11c5…70e3backed Yes | 56c | 125.23$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.16 | 91 | 62.6%57 W · 34 L | +10.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 36c | 124.27$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.07 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 62c | 119.42$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.56 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91f2…e2d7backed Yes | 38c | 118$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.16 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6a…8863backed Yes | 59c | 113.78$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e77…4fd2backed Yes | 62c | 112.17$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.17 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c67…bb39backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3ba…33b9backed Yes | 65c | 80.8$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.89 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4198…d38fbacked Yes | 54c | 79.05$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.05 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +3.8wins | +0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xed19…83babacked Yes | 64c | 78.54$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.54 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea89…26abbacked No | 73c | 77$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.14 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 66cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1015…d6e6backed No | 61c | 75$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a21…5319backed Yes | 54c | 72.59$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 32c | 65.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.16 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4229…c131backed No | 26c | 64.86$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…1f70backed Yes | 49c | 51.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +6.1wins | +0.15per pick | 41cpaid | +40.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 27c | 42$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a8e…05a4backed Yes | 62c | 41.96$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.12 | 430 | 50.2%216 W · 214 L | +21.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d6…b8e3backed No | 60c | 40$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8431…6291backed Yes | 27c | 40$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 45 | 64.4%29 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x666f…9ddfbacked No | 42c | 34.37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.52 | 107 | 26.2%28 W · 79 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e3…4cc6backed Yes | 53c | 33.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.76 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.1wins | -0.15per pick | 51cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd084…27eabacked No | 46c | 31.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948d…1a11backed Yes | 70c | 30.12$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.25per pick | 52cpaid | +41%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…d5f6backed Yes | 70c | 29.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 27.04$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22ab…d485backed Yes | 67c | 25.69$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.32per pick | 50cpaid | -66.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e6…d610backed No | 68c | 20.34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0dc5…eda6backed Yes | 66c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +86.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed No | 78c | 14.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.17 | 44 | 59.1%26 W · 18 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 40-41°F on January 27?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 39°F or below on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 42-43°F on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 44-45°F on January 27?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 46-47°F on January 27?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.