South American Leagues · resolved market
Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-02-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb715d38c69655befa45867d88348afab7f5f63e78a144bfd4962ae3fdaa3fc78
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,962
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 53c | 7,597$4,030 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,567.31 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 40c | 2,681$1,065 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,065.09 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0180…b8cdbacked Yes | 50c | 1,410$701 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$701 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -8.8wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked No | 42c | 1,349$567 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$782.59 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bc6…ac13backed Yes | 61c | 1,220$744 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$744 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +45.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 45c | 1,182$527 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$526.57 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 51c | 703.37$356 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.87 | 1,366 | 52.4%716 W · 650 L | +51.1wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Yes | 58c | 642.32$372 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.1 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Yes | 58c | 411.69$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.13 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdc3…c0eabacked No | 44c | 388.64$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…8dbebacked Yes | 53c | 370$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.1 | 86 | 48.8%42 W · 44 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9078backed Yes | 33c | 349.99$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117 | 122 | 39.3%48 W · 74 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8479…37f8backed Yes | 30c | 330$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 86 | 24.4%21 W · 65 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe015…621fbacked Yes | 50c | 319.51$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.7 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed No | 49c | 300$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4300…5c69backed Yes | 29c | 300$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.95 | 124 | 43.5%54 W · 70 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 58c | 273.27$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.02 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Yes | 26c | 261.92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 67c | 252.88$169 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.94 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Yes | 58c | 236$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.88 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked No | 43c | 200$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 47c | 200$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 52c | 140.4$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.7 | 1,444 | 56.4%815 W · 629 L | +51.8wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed No | 62c | 137.71$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.43 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb9d…c3eebacked Yes | 61c | 130.1$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9061…9510backed No | 43c | 129$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.53 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b9…948abacked Yes | 38c | 127.71$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed No | 41c | 120$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 46cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204d…ca5bbacked Yes | 47c | 120$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 42cpaid | -67.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Yes | 37c | 118.22$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.72 | 1,668 | 51.7%863 W · 805 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3e…ef94backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4549…0450backed Yes | 18c | 95.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 16 | 0%0 W · 16 L | -2.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Yes | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfc9…f57abacked Yes | 61c | 81.97$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a72…c2a0backed Yes | 31c | 77.13$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.86 | 302 | 31.1%94 W · 208 L | +10.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1f…3af7backed Yes | 57c | 70$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Yes | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9c14…f7eabacked Yes | 57c | 65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…b533backed Yes | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5470…accfbacked Yes | 55c | 55.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 179 | 50.8%91 W · 88 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 47c | 44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.59 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed No | 44c | 43.18$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +75.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70b1…73b2backed Yes | 57c | 42.99$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf60b…c18ebacked No | 43c | 40.9$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.31 | 213 | 45.1%96 W · 117 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0f0dbacked Yes | 57c | 39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc07…e9f2backed Yes | 57c | 39$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.23 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 72c | 37.96$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.81 | 373 | 55.2%206 W · 167 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e9b…829ebacked Yes | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +15.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd6…a330backed Yes | 57c | 33$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c73…2fabbacked Yes | 57c | 32$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cfc…0a65backed Yes | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e1b…c38fbacked No | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.23per pick | 52cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x07a4…be3abacked Yes | 57c | 29$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.53 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc234…e967backed Yes | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.57per pick | 57cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 70 | 48.6%34 W · 36 L | -6.7wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4915…60f2backed Yes | 58c | 25.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +3.2wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 154 | 59.1%91 W · 63 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2b…d621backed Yes | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +150%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf5…840ebacked Yes | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-02-02?this page
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw?Yes won
- Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-02-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.