South American Leagues · resolved market
Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe7aa94b4e08c9cb749b18355af3bb39c637bcad90639b8953bca3278924f5514
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,842
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 30 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 23c | 3,084$705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.62 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 46c | 1,872$852 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.14 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 57c | 1,461$834 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$834.44 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75bd…0288backed Yes | 52c | 600$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$289.26 | 286 | 51.7%148 W · 138 L | +14.5wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 72c | 572.91$413 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$413.42 | 816 | 51.6%421 W · 395 L | +12.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfed7…e405backed Yes | 28c | 428$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$308.16 | 127 | 50.4%64 W · 63 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec6c…23c7backed No | 49c | 369.4$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.12 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x004e…90f8backed Yes | 33c | 363.64$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.64 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a23…f4ffbacked Yes | 71c | 281.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.69 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64a8…7bc3backed Yes | 78c | 256.03$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.03 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.16per pick | 70cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 27c | 200$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146 | 154 | 59.7%92 W · 62 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 19c | 198$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.19 | 329 | 36.5%120 W · 209 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 49c | 159.82$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.84 | 849 | 43.8%372 W · 477 L | +5.1wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 29c | 133.09$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.09 | 274 | 42%115 W · 159 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes | 73c | 121.32$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.84 | 1,091 | 55.6%607 W · 484 L | -19.8wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b35…12b3backed Yes | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x20ca…e25abacked Yes | 63c | 80$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes | 27c | 79.72$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.2 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79fd…78cebacked Yes | 62c | 64.52$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 178 | 52.8%94 W · 84 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd69…f9bdbacked Yes | 28c | 61$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa96e…99babacked Yes | 28c | 60$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc264…7793backed Yes | 28c | 51$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb45b…d941backed Yes | 28c | 43$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe754…f9a4backed Yes | 28c | 39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5eeb…01b2backed Yes | 36c | 35$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.4 | 495 | 35.4%175 W · 320 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 59c | 23.56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 992 | 59.1%586 W · 406 L | +108.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +26.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked No | 46c | 23.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6310…0d90backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 78cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e85…443ebacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 59 | 50.8%30 W · 29 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 73c | 14.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 212 | 66.5%141 W · 71 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors vs. CA Belgrano end in a draw?this page
- Will AA Argentinos Juniors win on 2026-02-02?No won
- Will CA Belgrano win on 2026-02-02?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.