MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb718c1e930e9dba4324e996526048425238432efd289a9bddfecf14a4fd2d372
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Chicago White Soxof Seattle Mariners, Chicago White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $58,615
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $74,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $58,615 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa66d…6daabacked Chicago White Sox | 56c | 21,151$11,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,362.55 | 211 | 47.9%101 W · 110 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Chicago White Sox | 75c | 4,695$3,525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,170.58 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 3,493$1,319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,318.79 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Seattle Mariners | 46c | 2,530$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.63 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Seattle Mariners | 30c | 2,328$698 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.33 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Seattle Mariners | 58c | 2,208$1,288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,288.33 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Chicago White Sox | 42c | 2,157$897 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260.07 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Chicago White Sox | 64c | 1,382$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$494.69 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Chicago White Sox | 62c | 970.46$599 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.76 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc718…64a8backed Chicago White Sox | 76c | 931.63$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.59 | 1,083 | 56.3%610 W · 473 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a26…937ebacked Seattle Mariners | 35c | 571.43$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 613 | 51.5%316 W · 297 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 560$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.8 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 400$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…a4febacked Chicago White Sox | 76c | 395$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.8 | 1,119 | 45.5%509 W · 610 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 338.69$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.7 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Seattle Mariners | 30c | 333.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 271.7$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.94 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e4a…5ba6backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 260$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.4 | 115 | 42.6%49 W · 66 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b37…17bdbacked Seattle Mariners | 39c | 256.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Seattle Mariners | 51c | 239.25$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.41 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e0…e2cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 112 | 44.6%50 W · 62 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 192.05$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.87 | 575 | 48%276 W · 299 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 125$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Seattle Mariners | 49c | 115$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 997 | 44.1%440 W · 557 L | -38.0wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…bcb3backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 105.96$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 664 | 48.2%320 W · 344 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d5f…1171backed Chicago White Sox | 76c | 85.13$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 580 | 54.5%316 W · 264 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…8f79backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 65.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 399 | 48.1%192 W · 207 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked Chicago White Sox | 76c | 59.8$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.45 | 325 | 50.5%164 W · 161 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9794…32c9backed Chicago White Sox | 61c | 50.28$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed Seattle Mariners | 38c | 47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 1,001 | 48.3%483 W · 518 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a7…e5d4backed Chicago White Sox | 50c | 43.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 328 | 57.9%190 W · 138 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Chicago White Sox | 76c | 41.47$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b85…b31bbacked Seattle Mariners | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f7d…2cabbacked Seattle Mariners | 38c | 38.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.15per pick | 41cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Chicago White Sox | 76c | 33.82$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 1,269 | 51.1%648 W · 621 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Chicago White Sox | 64c | 32.95$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Chicago White Sox | 60c | 32.48$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc37e…9e64backed Chicago White Sox | 76c | 29.11$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 295 | 53.2%157 W · 138 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee5e…e619backed Chicago White Sox | 63c | 27.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +39.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcd…ac63backed Chicago White Sox | 76c | 26.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.44 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +3.5wins | +0.11per pick | 58cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Chicago White Sox | 57c | 26.1$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3902…cb50backed Seattle Mariners | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 73 | 63%46 W · 27 L | +6.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Seattle Mariners | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18d2…e9c3backed Chicago White Sox | 76c | 24.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 107 | 68.2%73 W · 34 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Chicago White Sox | 76c | 16.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 515 | 55.7%287 W · 228 L | +19.5wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle MarinersChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.