TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Chicago White Soxof Seattle Mariners, Chicago White Sox
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,407
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$2,410

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,407 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Chicago White Sox66c1,584$1,052 inWon+$531.98,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Seattle Mariners34c951.69$321 inLost-$320.895,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Seattle Mariners35c512.42$179 inLost-$179.352,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Seattle Mariners28c309.56$87 inLost-$86.6812,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Chicago White Sox72c277.77$200 inWon+$77.782,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x14e4…eabbbacked Seattle Mariners29c154$45 inLost-$44.6650949.5%252 W · 257 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0ed3…983fbacked Seattle Mariners29c109.4$32 inLost-$31.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Chicago White Sox62c80.27$50 inWon+$30.531038.4%119 W · 191 L+9.7wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x133a…504abacked Chicago White Sox76c43.42$33 inWon+$10.4254651.3%280 W · 266 L+29.8wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+12.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xadf6…4eaabacked Chicago White Sox71c28.53$20 inWon+$8.27250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-29.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7e37…cfbdbacked Chicago White Sox71c28.24$20 inWon+$8.19366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb888…f103backed Chicago White Sox71c26.36$19 inWon+$7.64366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+26.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9140…17e0backed Chicago White Sox71c26.27$19 inWon+$7.62580%4 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick63cpaid+46.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Chicago White Sox69c14.5$10 inWon+$4.426,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.