MLB · resolved market
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe9f9947c282b1bb083f94bd770f705cf7c0c73e380f3fde55bda2ee7a1c2abfc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,128
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,460
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,128 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x16e5…6373backed Under | 64c | 3,500$2,240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,260 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 36c | 3,094$1,114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,114.43 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d16…212ebacked Over | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 206 | 48.1%99 W · 107 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 50c | 1,773$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$886.67 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…6505backed Under | 47c | 1,423$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$753.99 | 1,284 | 49.5%635 W · 649 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Over | 53c | 1,178$624 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$624.13 | 680 | 53.2%362 W · 318 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 54c | 371.5$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 475 | 45.9%218 W · 257 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Under | 56c | 352.19$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.44 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 18c | 246$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.28 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over | 36c | 234.26$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.91 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36b3…e421backed Over | 51c | 200.88$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.45 | 403 | 41.4%167 W · 236 L | -20.0wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Under | 50c | 199.98$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.99 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 47c | 196.68$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.24 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6259…c451backed Over | 53c | 179$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.87 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.5wins | -0.16per pick | 47cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 49c | 145.88$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.4 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd190…e445backed Over | 53c | 135.09$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.6 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 47c | 112.11$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.95 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 47c | 95$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.35 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 36c | 91.67$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 47c | 78.66$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Over | 53c | 75.47$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Over | 43c | 52.19$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.44 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 49c | 34.31$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Over | 52c | 31.25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 1,836 | 50.8%932 W · 904 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55d6…1f24backed Over | 53c | 29.43$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 312 | 58%181 W · 131 L | +15.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x51eb…6bfabacked Over | 53c | 21.21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 704 | 55%387 W · 317 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 91 | 46.2%42 W · 49 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5this page
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle MarinersChicago White Sox won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 3.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 4.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 6.5Under won
- Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Chicago White Sox (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-2.5)Chicago White Sox won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-3.5)Chicago White Sox won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.