Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb729bee90c0c4f546b9339541d5f41b2e86703fea0eb4ade0abdf57ec611bf39
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,019
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,019 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x05c0…1a74backed Yes | 23c | 227.44$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.84 | 27 | 33.3%9 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 18c | 148.36$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.33 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd3…a457backed Yes | 13c | 131.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 49 | 32.7%16 W · 33 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c99…3cc4backed Yes | 8c | 129.31$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 71 | 29.6%21 W · 50 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x398c…c935backed Yes | 21c | 129.09$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 217 | 35%76 W · 141 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb26d…73f7backed No | 73c | 126.04$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.16 | 252 | 61.9%156 W · 96 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 27c | 110$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 107.02$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.18 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a6…9e63backed Yes | 26c | 105$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 332 | 32.8%109 W · 223 L | +18.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 40c | 104.77$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.33 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 60c | 80.5$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 13c | 78.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 1,544 | 16.3%252 W · 1,292 L | +21.9wins | +0.01per pick | 15cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 28c | 77$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.48 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 63c | 74.97$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 38c | 73.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 36c | 72.97$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.43 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3311…d659backed No | 74c | 67.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 195 | 51.8%101 W · 94 L | -8.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked Yes | 26c | 66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked Yes | 25c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 19c | 55.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 60c | 55$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb664…abbdbacked Yes | 41c | 49.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 446 | 46.2%206 W · 240 L | -16.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 37c | 37.19$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 59c | 33.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 61c | 32.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 37c | 32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 78c | 31.38$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 38c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 41c | 29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63a1…0212backed No | 62c | 26.16$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 252 | 58.7%148 W · 104 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b1…078cbacked Yes | 38c | 26.06$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb5…97d1backed Yes | 39c | 25.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.06 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 60c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 62c | 22.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 58c | 21.69$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.