Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 5?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb74a00056588135ce63ef5f5d64844711f43597c18e701c4c2af9ef742f807d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,203
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,203 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 23c | 382.31$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.93 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfe32…a0e7backed Yes | 57c | 288.5$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.67 | 65 | 29.2%19 W · 46 L | -9.3wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 256.87$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.58 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 38c | 222.73$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.68 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfd8…1b73backed Yes | 70c | 185.1$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.14 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.65$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 38c | 152.27$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.92 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 52c | 135.66$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked No | 26c | 126.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.62 | 656 | 25.8%169 W · 487 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 33c | 106.24$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.24 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7312…92f7backed Yes | 38c | 99.94$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.96 | 65 | 26.2%17 W · 48 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 48c | 98.64$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.89 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…37a6backed Yes | 40c | 93.53$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.65 | 409 | 35%143 W · 266 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 16c | 93.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.93 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b90…08e7backed Yes | 77c | 90.29$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.69 | 135 | 54.8%74 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 80c | 85.16$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.92 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 28c | 66.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ce…90a5backed Yes | 69c | 65$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.43 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 19c | 60.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 35c | 56.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.79 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 19c | 54.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.49 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c21…3fb9backed Yes | 69c | 52.75$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.41 | 132 | 60.6%80 W · 52 L | +14.6wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf5b…aea3backed No | 56c | 47.8$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.77 | 67 | 38.8%26 W · 41 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a1…20f9backed No | 62c | 46.24$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 340 | 57.1%194 W · 146 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65c4…7ea4backed Yes | 41c | 45.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.64 | 559 | 42.6%238 W · 321 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 64c | 44.59$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bd…e48fbacked No | 30c | 37.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 209 | 28.7%60 W · 149 L | -45.3wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 28-0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 64c | 33.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8c…e802backed Yes | 69c | 32.42$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 93 | 38.7%36 W · 57 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…7bb8backed Yes | 52c | 30.37$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 39 | 64.1%25 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 61c | 27.01$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7dde…71f5backed Yes | 60c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…4bd3backed Yes | 62c | 22.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.41 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x182a…f847backed No | 61c | 19.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 187 | 62.6%117 W · 70 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b65…e6bfbacked Yes | 68c | 19.4$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.13 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b39…22f7backed Yes | 70c | 18.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 63 | 19%12 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2354…fab1backed Yes | 70c | 15.08$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.53 | 140 | 62.9%88 W · 52 L | +11.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf402…8188backed No | 80c | 13.76$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.8wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 5?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 23°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 24°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on April 5?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or higher on April 5?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.