MLB · resolved market
Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb750f3f06cac8029bedb6f8eda524f4ae50d17d620d43b04bd9b0abca8705b84
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,832
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,998
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,832 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 53c | 793.89$424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.57 | 1,355 | 49.8%675 W · 680 L | +7.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Over | 47c | 319.96$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.38 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 28c | 267.6$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.87 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 55c | 266.51$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.86 | 1,912 | 53%1,014 W · 898 L | +42.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 39c | 225.73$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.13 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 56c | 209.62$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.81 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcde4…aa62backed Over | 45c | 203$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.35 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 51c | 188.71$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.09 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 51c | 184.72$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.94 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0520…3efdbacked Over | 53c | 165.18$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.04 | 532 | 61.8%329 W · 203 L | +20.6wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Under | 61c | 153.48$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.44 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6683…f5f4backed Over | 46c | 148.06$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.9 | 247 | 48.2%119 W · 128 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0a…e29dbacked Under | 74c | 133.03$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.59 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Under | 59c | 123.45$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf472…fd6ebacked Under | 64c | 114.05$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.65 | 123 | 49.6%61 W · 62 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Over | 46c | 106.12$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Over | 46c | 106.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d30…5f85backed Over | 46c | 106.1$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.81 | 111 | 49.5%55 W · 56 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Over | 46c | 106.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Over | 46c | 106.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 53c | 105.73$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.47 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8afa…28f0backed Over | 46c | 104.8$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.21 | 625 | 54.2%339 W · 286 L | +23.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Over | 46c | 97.78$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 51c | 71.82$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 701 | 54.2%380 W · 321 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 51c | 65$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 191 | 57.6%110 W · 81 L | -6.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Over | 40c | 61.67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 58c | 53.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 58c | 51.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.83 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x02dc…a212backed Over | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Over | 45c | 47.28$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.27 | 184 | 44%81 W · 103 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Under | 56c | 41.02$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.01 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Under | 57c | 34.53$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.77 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…a423backed Under | 60c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +29.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked Over | 42c | 29.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 192 | 57.8%111 W · 81 L | -5.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 40c | 27.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.18 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.86 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 56c | 19.14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.39 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5this page
- Athletics vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)Athletics won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.