TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$72,844
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$76,298

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,844 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 94 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x99a7…fc82backed Under49c28,328$13,774 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,774.1814248.6%69 W · 73 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Over51c26,005$13,353 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,652.021,02951.2%527 W · 502 L-6.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e3c…64b8backed Over53c6,545$3,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,097.21425%1 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.28per pick53cpaid-52.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe7b8…e32bbacked Under2c6,500$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110825%2 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick7cpaid+495.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over48c5,868$2,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,075.3510,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under50c5,240$2,611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,610.8912,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Under47c4,663$2,192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,191.8441149.1%202 W · 209 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under50c2,717$1,370 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,369.931,35549.8%675 W · 680 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d7a…b22fbacked Over52c2,040$1,061 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.9712551.2%64 W · 61 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under48c2,000$970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969.996,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Under48c1,671$802 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$802.0875049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over51c1,465$751 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$713.279,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x762e…4bf0backed Under43c1,333$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.7124551.8%127 W · 118 L-7.2wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-5.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Over39c1,308$514 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$793.3848850.2%245 W · 243 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f28…d173backed Over49c1,170$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.2519157.6%110 W · 81 L-6.8wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over54c1,010$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.062,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7333…ca16backed Under1c999.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13263.8%1 W · 25 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-45.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over51c951.19$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.081,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Over52c933.85$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$448.2589153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under48c897.86$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$435.361,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Over46c707.77$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$380.931,17329%340 W · 833 L-0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-5.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5966…af5dbacked Under50c700$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35027249.3%134 W · 138 L-3.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Over50c655.72$328 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$327.862,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Under33c626.78$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.891,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Under54c571.75$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$305.9641847.6%199 W · 219 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7634…600dbacked Over74c400$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10460350.1%302 W · 301 L-10.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0273…1867backed Under45c399.44$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.5529344.7%131 W · 162 L+13.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb47b…c6b1backed Under50c390.35$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.9611138.7%43 W · 68 L-11.0wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-20.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Over51c342.52$173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$169.515,23456.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L+130.4wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e3e…7857backed Under53c333.55$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.074245.2%19 W · 23 L-4.5wins-0.11per pick56cpaid-23.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x055a…12ddbacked Over52c300.29$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.144548.9%22 W · 23 L+0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf16d…b7f9backed Over58c299.81$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.437339.7%29 W · 44 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8811…627cbacked Over73c267.82$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.9555464.1%355 W · 199 L+63.1wins+0.11per pick53cpaid+19.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Under27c263.2$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.736434.4%22 W · 42 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-16.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Under49c244.67$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.891,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Over54c239.05$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.532,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Over51c214.5$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.111,05347.3%498 W · 555 L-14.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x503a…1e89backed Under50c199.18$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.675650%28 W · 28 L+4.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+19.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x938e…9b66backed Over51c190.31$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.2548150.7%244 W · 237 L-19.3wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfddc…931abacked Over50c184.3$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.152259.1%13 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick53cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbd14…76b4backed Under50c165$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.58360.2%50 W · 33 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Over52c159.98$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.792,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Under53c145.69$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9482551.6%426 W · 399 L+3.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-6.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c6a…189bbacked Under50c143.42$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.42540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa21b…9e94backed Over51c123.7$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.6148651%248 W · 238 L-18.0wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Under44c117.35$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.132,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa516…235cbacked Under28c113.89$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.865442.6%23 W · 31 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Under36c108.5$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4378146.4%362 W · 419 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfdf2…225ebacked Under50c101.27$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3840%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x961a…e91cbacked Under38c97.6$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.956956.5%39 W · 30 L+3.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Under37c92.18$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.536,30348.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L+181.4wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over51c86.49$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.382,29649.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L+37.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under41c85.4$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.886,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Under59c82.91$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.921,34547.7%642 W · 703 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Over57c77.61$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.7229047.6%138 W · 152 L-11.4wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Under45c76.51$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.071,26947.4%602 W · 667 L-31.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Under52c74.71$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8537747.2%178 W · 199 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0520…3efdbacked Over56c73.86$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.5453261.8%329 W · 203 L+20.6wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+4.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa796…95f9backed Under52c71.13$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.051060%6 W · 4 L+1.2wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+25.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xccb7…0477backed Under48c67.6$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4511365.5%74 W · 39 L+6.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+12.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over41c66.61$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.5399624.6%245 W · 751 L-70.1wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa5dd…69ddbacked Under50c63.19$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.86633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-53.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe697…708fbacked Under53c61.25$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.622949.8%114 W · 115 L-8.7wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-1.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xca20…7b68backed Under53c54.72$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.7937143.9%163 W · 208 L-21.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-20.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2528…b77dbacked Under51c53.41$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.31,63055.2%899 W · 731 L+2.2wins0.00per pick55cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df6…cba0backed Under39c52.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.51,44550.3%727 W · 718 L-27.6wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-15.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd4d5…a8dabacked Under48c50.46$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2220955.5%116 W · 93 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+10.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x66ec…5891backed Under48c49.98$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.999043.3%39 W · 51 L-4.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-8.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1c09…990bbacked Under41c46.51$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.3633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-50.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8743…9591backed Under23c45.02$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1550%0 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6687…b9ddbacked Under54c45.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.318752.9%46 W · 41 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfff…3d0ebacked Under39c43.21$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0326553.2%141 W · 124 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Over58c43.1$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.12,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d49…e00abacked Over67c42.44$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0566749.3%329 W · 338 L-22.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6fe4…03b0backed Over57c42.3$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.19450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Under50c42.09$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.921,43550%717 W · 718 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9fe5…7936backed Over50c38.8$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.419248.4%93 W · 99 L-5.5wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under42c38.29$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161,84343.6%804 W · 1,039 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x35d1…1f70backed Under54c36.01$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4522554.7%123 W · 102 L+6.8wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+8.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7fce…6476backed Under49c35.97$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.773562.9%22 W · 13 L+4.8wins+0.14per pick49cpaid+26.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xabce…2f87backed Under51c34.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.828947.2%42 W · 47 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-18%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd100…853dbacked Under54c34.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.6354152.1%282 W · 259 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2c8…d506backed Over43c33.69$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.25442.6%23 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Over50c29.57$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.781,00157.3%574 W · 427 L+2.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4411…41f8backed Over78c28.74$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.282100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+48.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…a82fbacked Under63c27.63$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.32429.2%7 W · 17 L-2.9wins-0.12per pick41cpaid-39.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xdded…13a2backed Under45c24.82$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.2220258.4%118 W · 84 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0d6b…8ffabacked Under52c24.27$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.65154.9%28 W · 23 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+29.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Under59c23.91$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.051,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb7…9241backed Under51c23.29$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.882965.5%19 W · 10 L+3.1wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+36.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xbd6c…b78dbacked Over65c22.66$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.97580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.27per pick53cpaid+38.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7f9…29a9backed Under52c19.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3522848.2%110 W · 118 L-9.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-15.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd10a…91e9backed Over52c19.42$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.3211953.8%64 W · 55 L-3.7wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfa1c…0144backed Over64c18.35$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.