MLB · resolved market
Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc0816d9e5ba293d871a417d196a1be0d67d91d515f35e693ed15aeea58438c91
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Athleticsof Seattle Mariners, Athletics
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,518
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,974
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,518 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked Seattle Mariners | 29c | 4,709$1,363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,363.2 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55d8…b384backed Athletics | 57c | 3,373$1,925 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,448.69 | 577 | 44.7%258 W · 319 L | -6.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Athletics | 72c | 3,038$2,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$854.65 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf16d…b7f9backed Seattle Mariners | 32c | 893.2$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.59 | 73 | 39.7%29 W · 44 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0b…4dd5backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 873.45$284 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$284.12 | 140 | 34.3%48 W · 92 L | -13.7wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0a…e29dbacked Athletics | 69c | 710.74$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.03 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e4a…eee7backed Athletics | 57c | 692.74$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.92 | 308 | 44.2%136 W · 172 L | -10.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 661.38$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.81 | 1,029 | 51.2%527 W · 502 L | -6.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Athletics | 66c | 536.81$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$179.84 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Athletics | 56c | 500$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Seattle Mariners | 37c | 486.44$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.96 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Seattle Mariners | 15c | 429.7$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.67 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Athletics | 77c | 395.61$305 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.99 | 1,345 | 47.7%642 W · 703 L | +10.2wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Athletics | 55c | 371.37$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$167.12 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Seattle Mariners | 32c | 330.74$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.21 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 308.6$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.39 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Seattle Mariners | 42c | 295.14$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.96 | 1,292 | 50.2%648 W · 644 L | +18.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Athletics | 73c | 275.87$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.96 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Seattle Mariners | 32c | 246.29$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2fb5…b009backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 231.94$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.05 | 64 | 45.3%29 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Seattle Mariners | 41c | 228$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.48 | 996 | 24.6%245 W · 751 L | -70.1wins | -0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Athletics | 56c | 227.27$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 219.64$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.64 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…600dbacked Seattle Mariners | 44c | 200$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 603 | 50.1%302 W · 301 L | -10.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Seattle Mariners | 43c | 190.82$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.05 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeded…bfe9backed Seattle Mariners | 16c | 179.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 57 | 38.6%22 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Seattle Mariners | 43c | 157$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.51 | 2,296 | 49.7%1,141 W · 1,155 L | +37.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Seattle Mariners | 24c | 150$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 457 | 32.2%147 W · 310 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Athletics | 61c | 142.27$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.47 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 137$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.28 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Seattle Mariners | 45c | 106.91$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.11 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Athletics | 62c | 97.16$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.45 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 96.7$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.52 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x45dd…7b56backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 96.64$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.52 | 162 | 42.6%69 W · 93 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8811…627cbacked Seattle Mariners | 31c | 85.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 554 | 64.1%355 W · 199 L | +63.1wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Seattle Mariners | 33c | 84.58$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.16 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Athletics | 74c | 69.97$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.41 | 524 | 49%257 W · 267 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c76…2632backed Seattle Mariners | 36c | 67.23$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.02 | 245 | 54.7%134 W · 111 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6c…b78dbacked Seattle Mariners | 30c | 64.91$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.17 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +38.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Athletics | 75c | 63.41$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.68 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed Athletics | 73c | 60.4$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 1,195 | 50%597 W · 598 L | +5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Seattle Mariners | 44c | 57.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.27 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Athletics | 65c | 54.82$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.19 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x948b…a188backed Athletics | 73c | 51.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.89 | 946 | 48.9%463 W · 483 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Seattle Mariners | 45c | 49.16$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.12 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Seattle Mariners | 25c | 46.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Seattle Mariners | 33c | 45.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 235 | 22.6%53 W · 182 L | -20.7wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd3c2…5509backed Athletics | 74c | 43.71$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 221 | 54.3%120 W · 101 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Seattle Mariners | 36c | 32.37$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.62 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Athletics | 56c | 26.07$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.47 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked Athletics | 66c | 25.72$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Athletics | 56c | 20.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdded…13a2backed Athletics | 68c | 19.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 202 | 58.4%118 W · 84 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc353…30a8backed Athletics | 57c | 19.33$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 104 | 49%51 W · 53 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dd…69ddbacked Athletics | 73c | 19.31$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.31 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a4…d8b4backed Athletics | 74c | 19.29$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.03 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Athletics | 70c | 17.88$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Athletics | 75c | 16.6$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.23 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Seattle Mariners (-1.5)this page
- Athletics vs. Seattle MarinersSeattle Mariners won
- Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 10.5Under won
- Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 7.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 8.5Over won
- Athletics vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Athletics (-1.5)Seattle Mariners won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Athletics vs. Seattle MarinersYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.