Tennis · resolved market
ITF Denia: Pavel Lagutin vs Pedro Rodenas
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7840f83a8627d1685441e5c22766cbadaa34e3ae1971deaaa214cb1764df296
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Pavel Lagutinof Pavel Lagutin, Pedro Rodenas
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,116
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,938
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,116 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc07d…b1dfbacked Pavel Lagutin | 76c | 4,452$3,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,053.42 | 2,383 | 55.6%1,326 W · 1,057 L | +49.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2bb…3250backed Pedro Rodenas | 7c | 1,241$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.9 | 244 | 52.5%128 W · 116 L | +9.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Pedro Rodenas | 17c | 536.11$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.77 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9af…359cbacked Pedro Rodenas | 24c | 329.44$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.07 | 514 | 57.2%294 W · 220 L | +29.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4abd…5a5cbacked Pedro Rodenas | 24c | 243$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.32 | 391 | 59.1%231 W · 160 L | +28.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe839…0a9dbacked Pedro Rodenas | 24c | 220$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.8 | 391 | 57.8%226 W · 165 L | +20.9wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f4…6794backed Pedro Rodenas | 24c | 217$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.08 | 369 | 54.2%200 W · 169 L | +14.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5a…d0f0backed Pedro Rodenas | 24c | 212$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.88 | 461 | 55.3%255 W · 206 L | +19.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe89c…9c72backed Pedro Rodenas | 24c | 211$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 430 | 54.9%236 W · 194 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0a92…6b00backed Pedro Rodenas | 24c | 210$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 476 | 51.9%247 W · 229 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d24…f379backed Pedro Rodenas | 24c | 209$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.16 | 361 | 54%195 W · 166 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8888…3d5cbacked Pedro Rodenas | 24c | 208$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.92 | 303 | 53.5%162 W · 141 L | +13.8wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e1…b2fabacked Pedro Rodenas | 24c | 207$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.74 | 523 | 55.6%291 W · 232 L | +26.1wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3e…cd83backed Pedro Rodenas | 24c | 203$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.72 | 445 | 52.8%235 W · 210 L | +9.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbab2…9decbacked Pedro Rodenas | 24c | 201$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.24 | 291 | 51.9%151 W · 140 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdeb6…32b5backed Pedro Rodenas | 24c | 195$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 318 | 56%178 W · 140 L | +19.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd13e…ed01backed Pedro Rodenas | 24c | 193$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.32 | 338 | 55%186 W · 152 L | +16.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe8…72bcbacked Pedro Rodenas | 24c | 191$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.84 | 536 | 57.8%310 W · 226 L | +35.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…db95backed Pedro Rodenas | 24c | 189$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.36 | 329 | 52.3%172 W · 157 L | +6.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3131…91cdbacked Pedro Rodenas | 24c | 187$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 318 | 55.7%177 W · 141 L | +16.9wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3679…492ebacked Pedro Rodenas | 24c | 187$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.88 | 295 | 54.6%161 W · 134 L | +15.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9455…7defbacked Pedro Rodenas | 21c | 174.8$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.71 | 960 | 49.5%475 W · 485 L | +16.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8526…72aabacked Pavel Lagutin | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 736 | 48.1%354 W · 382 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0b…c814backed Pedro Rodenas | 17c | 91$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 384 | 59.9%230 W · 154 L | +29.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x84d4…77a9backed Pedro Rodenas | 26c | 42.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.96 | 394 | 46.7%184 W · 210 L | -7.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Pavel Lagutin | 51c | 28$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 1,227 | 53.2%653 W · 574 L | -5.2wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e4b…0a04backed Pavel Lagutin | 80c | 19.24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.85 | 252 | 59.9%151 W · 101 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…780bbacked Pavel Lagutin | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 1,025 | 54%554 W · 471 L | +37.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.