MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb797fda8f5b55c238d346ff5da172c20721635cbd3816641112a09e1ac63b713
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,829
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,867
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,829 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8b88…8f33backed Under | 50c | 12,451$6,226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,225.74 | 448 | 51.6%231 W · 217 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 50c | 4,961$2,485 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,485.27 | 11,606 | 52.8%6,131 W · 5,475 L | +210.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 50c | 3,958$1,977 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,977.41 | 11,054 | 51.5%5,694 W · 5,360 L | +137.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Over | 50c | 3,500$1,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,750 | 4,524 | 48.9%2,214 W · 2,310 L | -42.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 52c | 1,529$789 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$739.5 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Over | 44c | 804.02$351 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.41 | 8,654 | 52.6%4,550 W · 4,104 L | +506.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 52c | 632.7$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.28 | 5,172 | 54.6%2,824 W · 2,348 L | +227.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5e94…5ba1backed Over | 46c | 375.74$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.84 | 486 | 48.8%237 W · 249 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ca…d984backed Under | 54c | 370.37$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.37 | 384 | 53.9%207 W · 177 L | +16.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaf19…ca28backed Under | 51c | 252$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.48 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6717…d6ebbacked Under | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.19 | 372 | 56.5%210 W · 162 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe722…57c5backed Over | 47c | 127.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 966 | 48.9%472 W · 494 L | -40.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Over | 46c | 125.77$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.86 | 3,541 | 51%1,805 W · 1,736 L | +53.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Under | 53c | 123.85$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.21 | 614 | 50.8%312 W · 302 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f14…ca5abacked Over | 53c | 122.6$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.23 | 1,042 | 49.4%515 W · 527 L | +13.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 51c | 119.28$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.33 | 3,465 | 51.2%1,774 W · 1,691 L | +105.6wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Over | 46c | 118.52$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.52 | 999 | 47.5%475 W · 524 L | -3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 33c | 114$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.38 | 3,225 | 51.2%1,651 W · 1,574 L | +147.4wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Over | 53c | 113.91$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabce…2f87backed Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 89 | 47.2%42 W · 47 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -18%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda48…5926backed Under | 48c | 81$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.44 | 123 | 39%48 W · 75 L | -9.7wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Under | 48c | 73.37$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.87 | 5,848 | 43.7%2,556 W · 3,292 L | -189.0wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 48c | 64.61$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.01 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1631…072dbacked Under | 70c | 53.84$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 773 | 53.9%417 W · 356 L | +35.9wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 54c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 4,428 | 45.1%1,996 W · 2,432 L | +87.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 47c | 42.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 672 | 48.5%326 W · 346 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Over | 41c | 40.01$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 694 | 47.6%330 W · 364 L | -9.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 38c | 38.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 1,150 | 31.7%365 W · 785 L | -95.6wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…2b11backed Under | 54c | 36.67$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.87 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd56d…4928backed Over | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -4.3wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Over | 50c | 30.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.25 | 926 | 69.5%644 W · 282 L | +94.4wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Under | 53c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.25 | 2,423 | 49.9%1,208 W · 1,215 L | +20.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…5273backed Over | 52c | 28.49$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.92 | 536 | 44.6%239 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Under | 64c | 28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.08 | 4,401 | 47.5%2,090 W · 2,311 L | -76.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Over | 54c | 21.89$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x83ce…835cbacked Under | 66c | 20.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 507 | 48.7%247 W · 260 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.