MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2dc9fd67e4986aead788aa08736b8cbbb9c9ac3cbf7cd199baf9ff2c5b9ade99
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,256
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,264
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,256 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 56c | 5,311$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Under | 47c | 3,446$1,632 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,814.07 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Under | 44c | 1,123$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.04 | 1,572 | 48.3%759 W · 813 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 44c | 1,078$472 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.79 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57b1…4b99backed Over | 56c | 1,072$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 175 | 46.9%82 W · 93 L | -9.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 1,051$651 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.61 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 46c | 836.16$382 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.01 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c9…7debbacked Under | 50c | 766.7$383 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$383.35 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x815f…1eefbacked Over | 35c | 621.11$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.39 | 912 | 52.4%478 W · 434 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 43c | 500$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$285 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 56c | 363.9$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.55 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe1e4…a1adbacked Under | 68c | 315.95$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.84 | 132 | 64.4%85 W · 47 L | +9.3wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Over | 41c | 291.39$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.47 | 904 | 46.9%424 W · 480 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Over | 55c | 267.73$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.22 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 54c | 266.02$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.87 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 62c | 199.98$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.94 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 58c | 175.24$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.46 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6383…6e28backed Over | 66c | 149.26$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 792 | 55.6%440 W · 352 L | +20.6wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8351…9bebbacked Over | 56c | 142.95$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 652 | 48.3%315 W · 337 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Over | 57c | 122.95$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.27 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Over | 54c | 121.83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.79 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Over | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.5 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x976a…e8ecbacked Over | 22c | 97.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.39 | 1,014 | 50.4%511 W · 503 L | +52.0wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9c…3648backed Over | 54c | 90.93$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.1 | 1,733 | 49%849 W · 884 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Over | 43c | 88.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Under | 77c | 82.13$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.07 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Over | 22c | 79.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 74.91$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.58 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd17a…0373backed Over | 56c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.2 | 770 | 50.5%389 W · 381 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Over | 37c | 64.52$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Over | 63c | 55.93$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Over | 42c | 54.76$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 546 | 51.3%280 W · 266 L | +29.8wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 22c | 52.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x31e7…fe2abacked Under | 33c | 48.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.48 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6123…8b33backed Over | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 268 | 53.7%144 W · 124 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Under | 54c | 43.76$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74df…2b11backed Under | 46c | 43.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Over | 34c | 42.26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Over | 40c | 40.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd619…c461backed Under | 43c | 34.62$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.62 | 644 | 52.2%336 W · 308 L | +26.1wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb1…6c8fbacked Under | 58c | 29.14$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.17 | 276 | 52.9%146 W · 130 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c89…5820backed Over | 35c | 28.58$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 44c | 26.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.1 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Over | 61c | 20.85$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52f2…5a5dbacked Over | 54c | 19.3$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 111 | 53.2%59 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 7.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami MarlinsMiami Marlins won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 5.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 8.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-1.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: Miami Marlins (-2.5)San Francisco Giants won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Miami Marlins won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-2.5)Miami Marlins won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Miami MarlinsYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.