Commodities · resolved market
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on April 28?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb79973a6ec03d6eac7d25b62d7996f3f72ff2184d61b536f9abda428388f5511
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Upof Up, Down
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Commoditiesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,538
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $87,935
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,538 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Commodities is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Commodities | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Down | 8c | 18,500$1,471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,470.97 | 942 | 40.2%379 W · 563 L | -69.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x264c…bacabacked Up | 64c | 12,925$8,231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,694.81 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa913…35d7backed Down | 29c | 3,484$1,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,005.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…3ec3backed Up | 68c | 2,769$1,890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$878.86 | 292 | 64%187 W · 105 L | +47.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +41.7%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffe…26f4backed Down | 8c | 2,553$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.01 | 135 | 38.5%52 W · 83 L | +5.7wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…551fbacked Up | 68c | 2,000$1,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$640 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xddee…5dcdbacked Down | 6c | 1,667$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa540…0b43backed Down | 30c | 1,563$476 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$475.52 | 1,286 | 24.2%311 W · 975 L | -58.4wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -45%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xafce…c2f6backed Up | 68c | 1,400$952 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$448 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -3.8wins | -0.20per pick | 46cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xbb09…738dbacked Up | 75c | 1,311$983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$327.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed Up | 59c | 1,163$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$478.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Down | 2c | 1,074$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.92 | 53 | 15.1%8 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd8…15fcbacked Down | 34c | 1,000$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked Down | 5c | 888$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.4 | 72 | 44.4%32 W · 40 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eb49backed Up | 68c | 858.86$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$274.43 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 55cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c7…147abacked Down | 45c | 800$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.0wins | -0.08per pick | 44cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79e6…4a42backed Down | 6c | 704.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa98…90bbbacked Up | 69c | 700.59$486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.75 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Down | 4c | 644.35$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.2 | 206 | 24.8%51 W · 155 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Down | 7c | 565.37$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.29 | 273 | 22%60 W · 213 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd65…0f2cbacked Up | 52c | 472.15$246 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.63 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f9…ed12backed Down | 4c | 400$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -46.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x933c…a8c6backed Down | 6c | 397.2$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 61 | 29.5%18 W · 43 L | -2.1wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -22%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e0…bcfdbacked Up | 62c | 344.65$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.5 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -2.2wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…c9e0backed Down | 25c | 341.31$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f5b…8aaabacked Down | 3c | 312.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cd3…0cdfbacked Down | 24c | 300$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -2.7wins | -0.33per pick | 46cpaid | -83.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…e1b9backed Down | 30c | 300$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5082…049dbacked Down | 44c | 276.23$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.54 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.8wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x08e0…bfdfbacked Down | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +3.0wins | +0.37per pick | 50cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2977…4eb0backed Up | 77c | 200$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe80f…3354backed Down | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -3.3wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -65.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91dd…2730backed Down | 29c | 200$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x53ef…e71ebacked Down | 27c | 199.99$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf1…badebacked Down | 44c | 199.8$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.92 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -53.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked Up | 59c | 193.44$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.31 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.18per pick | 42cpaid | +99%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…50adbacked Up | 69c | 184.79$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.28 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 63cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0503…4155backed Down | 44c | 151.84$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.33 | 111 | 38.7%43 W · 68 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x211e…5c33backed Up | 77c | 150$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +55.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ad…39c6backed Down | 48c | 150$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x448d…3adebacked Up | 75c | 110$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf76a…b506backed Up | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…d52dbacked Down | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34c2…1540backed Down | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0254…efdbbacked Down | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.18per pick | 48cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 41-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xd61f…608dbacked Up | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e68…6898backed Down | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…308fbacked Up | 61c | 100$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef6e…15cfbacked Down | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2be2…82fabacked Down | 23c | 99.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.29per pick | 58cpaid | -63.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…6872backed Up | 51c | 98.08$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.59 | 79 | 60.8%48 W · 31 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59d4…b745backed Up | 80c | 91.49$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.7 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.5wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x737e…37b0backed Up | 75c | 65.33$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08bf…df57backed Up | 78c | 58.66$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.03 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | -3.0wins | -0.17per pick | 72cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe04a…5377backed Up | 75c | 52.27$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2506…a294backed Up | 75c | 51.36$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 73cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4528…24dcbacked Up | 68c | 35.82$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +41.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7d02…8c95backed Up | 59c | 32.79$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…bf6cbacked Up | 69c | 25.83$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.91 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddb8…4ca9backed Up | 69c | 21.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea9…5b98backed Up | 59c | 19.21$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Commodities and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.