College Football · resolved market
Air Force vs. Utah State
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7997461d7391ced67fb5abfe08409586c9ccec0d6a729250cc3517c333fe118
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Utah Stateof Air Force, Utah State
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- College Footballevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $51,773
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $51,773 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in College Football is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in College Football | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2d0f…4faabacked Utah State | 37c | 10,000$3,700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,300 | 155 | 39.4%61 W · 94 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2e…ddecbacked Air Force | 63c | 9,583$6,037 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,036.74 | 405 | 49.4%200 W · 205 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Utah State | 41c | 5,277$2,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,121.82 | 862 | 43.7%377 W · 485 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481b…74c1backed Air Force | 21c | 4,051$851 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$851.25 | 237 | 51.1%121 W · 116 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x328e…dc42backed Utah State | 60c | 3,483$2,097 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,385.87 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Air Force | 23c | 2,663$623 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$623.37 | 859 | 47.7%410 W · 449 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Air Force | 45c | 2,606$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.08 | 684 | 40.8%279 W · 405 L | -10.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Air Force | 63c | 1,000$630 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$630 | 98 | 43.9%43 W · 55 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebc6…c3e4backed Air Force | 37c | 969.31$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.6 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +6.2wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Utah State | 37c | 698.99$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$441.44 | 818 | 47.9%392 W · 426 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Utah State | 63c | 665.65$419 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.24 | 553 | 50.3%278 W · 275 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7c4…5919backed Air Force | 15c | 655.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 80 | 6.3%5 W · 75 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Utah State | 37c | 499.46$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.66 | 64 | 34.4%22 W · 42 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked Air Force | 63c | 481.25$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.65 | 503 | 58.1%292 W · 211 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97e1…017bbacked Air Force | 13c | 343.25$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.71 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Utah State | 37c | 270.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.27 | 398 | 47.7%190 W · 208 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d6b…74ccbacked Utah State | 37c | 249.9$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Air Force | 63c | 200.99$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.63 | 1,090 | 41.7%455 W · 635 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Air Force | 10c | 128$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 402 | 44.8%180 W · 222 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb40…a284backed Utah State | 57c | 126.5$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 345 | 29.9%103 W · 242 L | -21.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe897…0b3bbacked Air Force | 42c | 118.6$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 15 | 86.7%13 W · 2 L | +4.0wins | +0.27per pick | 60cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc1c9…cf27backed Air Force | 64c | 117.19$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c45…19cbbacked Utah State | 38c | 105.26$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.26 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51fd…4272backed Utah State | 37c | 100$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 473 | 31.5%149 W · 324 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6239…c24fbacked Air Force | 44c | 77.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.19 | 494 | 43.7%216 W · 278 L | -9.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Air Force | 65c | 77.14$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7594…0d7fbacked Utah State | 39c | 76.92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.92 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.26per pick | 59cpaid | -42%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x83c2…1193backed Air Force | 64c | 72$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 59cpaid | -49%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf36…94e8backed Utah State | 36c | 70$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.8 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.8wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x02c7…3df7backed Utah State | 37c | 67.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.57 | 128 | 57%73 W · 55 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x02ec…5412backed Air Force | 64c | 59.4$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.01 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | -5.7wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe065…d1debacked Utah State | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Air Force | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Utah State | 66c | 50$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.05 | 571 | 44.7%255 W · 316 L | +11.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf28a…bcd4backed Air Force | 64c | 47.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 31cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1434…05f3backed Utah State | 37c | 45.95$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.95 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf002…047fbacked Utah State | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc3d1…f279backed Utah State | 62c | 32.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +28.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf983…1ae2backed Air Force | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fbc…3099backed Air Force | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 168 | 39.9%67 W · 101 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3778…8604backed Air Force | 51c | 30.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d28…932abacked Utah State | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 176 | 34.7%61 W · 115 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xed09…6e5ebacked Air Force | 44c | 28.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8272…541dbacked Utah State | 42c | 24$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | +3.1wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdf…028fbacked Air Force | 64c | 23.44$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1242…8dfebacked Utah State | 74c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.2 | 32 | 87.5%28 W · 4 L | +5.1wins | +0.16per pick | 72cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac9…cc1bbacked Air Force | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in College Football and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.