Bundesliga · resolved market
Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-04-25?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb7b64111bed2d635e9e64b087c0d3a6f5791be9e3586f09f41f9b933e12a74d8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,181
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,148
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,181 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x912a…2e6abacked Yes | 44c | 4,140$1,822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,318.63 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 56c | 2,973$1,665 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,664.88 | 1,355 | 50.9%690 W · 665 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed No | 42c | 1,896$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$802.89 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38f1…9ff1backed No | 34c | 1,067$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.78 | 49 | 65.3%32 W · 17 L | +4.1wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 63c | 725.95$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.99 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 14c | 572.02$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.55 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 57c | 515.53$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.03 | 435 | 32.2%140 W · 295 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 44c | 439.27$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.99 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Yes | 57c | 385.13$219 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.51 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Yes | 33c | 362.5$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$241.92 | 446 | 55.4%247 W · 199 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1966…da9ebacked No | 57c | 341.82$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.84 | 80 | 50%40 W · 40 L | +2.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf88f…c334backed No | 55c | 283.87$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.13 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -3.2wins | -0.64per pick | 64cpaid | -100%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b5…1212backed No | 6c | 277.24$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 105 | 32.4%34 W · 71 L | -8.6wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Yes | 56c | 176.7$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.75 | 164 | 64%105 W · 59 L | +28.5wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed No | 55c | 165$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked No | 8c | 151.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 14c | 149.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 398 | 57.5%229 W · 169 L | +20.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1792…118abacked Yes | 49c | 121.19$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.21 | 108 | 65.7%71 W · 37 L | +8.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Yes | 55c | 113.97$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.87 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…1c75backed No | 55c | 100$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0362…449ebacked No | 57c | 99.85$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.91 | 135 | 55.6%75 W · 60 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed Yes | 55c | 70$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 275 | 54.9%151 W · 124 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Yes | 44c | 65.68$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.03 | 202 | 51%103 W · 99 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb897…fc48backed Yes | 24c | 64$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.64 | 117 | 41.9%49 W · 68 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 32c | 59.36$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.12 | 93 | 54.8%51 W · 42 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb82b…bb76backed Yes | 33c | 55.03$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.76 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -3.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -68.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc33d…0d40backed Yes | 50c | 51.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.39 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.5wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 55c | 50.5$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.78 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 62c | 49.11$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed No | 58c | 42.96$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 68 | 54.4%37 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…efabbacked Yes | 68c | 42.84$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f3…999fbacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 115 | 39.1%45 W · 70 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb4…4576backed No | 56c | 26.76$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 98 | 50%49 W · 49 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e4a…f43dbacked Yes | 66c | 23.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.07 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will DSC Arminia Bielefeld win on 2026-04-25?this page
- Will SC Preußen Münster vs. DSC Arminia Bielefeld end in a draw?No won
- Will SC Preußen Münster win on 2026-04-25?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.