Tennis · resolved market
Almaty Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Corentin Moutet
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb826d187594ab5b875f0dbf43d16a7f58e08aa06980cca46be157c4c5d3b86d5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Moutetof Struff, Moutet
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,578
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,578 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a18…2ef0backed Struff | 47c | 7,422$3,494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,494.19 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Moutet | 60c | 5,715$3,456 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,259.39 | 2,426 | 47.3%1,148 W · 1,278 L | +45.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Moutet | 69c | 4,635$3,215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,420.46 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcc30…c8a5backed Struff | 48c | 3,736$1,790 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,789.98 | 189 | 33.9%64 W · 125 L | -8.5wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Moutet | 58c | 3,695$2,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.35 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Moutet | 29c | 2,307$670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,636.77 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3868…5683backed Struff | 43c | 2,060$883 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$883.12 | 73 | 30.1%22 W · 51 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82a…5fcfbacked Struff | 43c | 1,576$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.6 | 189 | 43.4%82 W · 107 L | -8.8wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc398…f446backed Moutet | 57c | 1,415$806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.35 | 960 | 35.4%340 W · 620 L | -40.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Moutet | 56c | 1,161$650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.71 | 1,039 | 54.6%567 W · 472 L | +37.6wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Moutet | 53c | 861.34$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.79 | 627 | 42.4%266 W · 361 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9354…6502backed Moutet | 59c | 611.99$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.18 | 755 | 47.8%361 W · 394 L | +0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Struff | 46c | 600$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 819 | 38.9%319 W · 500 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde44…cb51backed Struff | 44c | 560.45$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 134 | 35.1%47 W · 87 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ef5…325ebacked Struff | 37c | 550$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 99 | 61.6%61 W · 38 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4781…336dbacked Struff | 48c | 516.67$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248 | 264 | 62.1%164 W · 100 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Moutet | 52c | 488.63$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.54 | 441 | 25.4%112 W · 329 L | -11.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbaa…59b8backed Moutet | 57c | 350.88$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.88 | 324 | 48.1%156 W · 168 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x25bf…7a56backed Struff | 38c | 263.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,335 | 46.6%1,088 W · 1,247 L | +55.3wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8c…b52cbacked Struff | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Moutet | 75c | 226.24$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.05 | 245 | 44.9%110 W · 135 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60cc…f0dfbacked Struff | 48c | 218.74$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.18 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x875c…d3e8backed Struff | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61c1…0513backed Moutet | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 1,287 | 60.7%781 W · 506 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6884…6ccfbacked Moutet | 56c | 200.47$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.47 | 116 | 47.4%55 W · 61 L | -4.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Moutet | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 731 | 47.9%350 W · 381 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f19…aec2backed Moutet | 78c | 189.86$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.77 | 58 | 69%40 W · 18 L | +5.8wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc3…5a00backed Moutet | 70c | 150$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Moutet | 56c | 146.06$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.57 | 2,865 | 44.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L | +6.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Struff | 44c | 142.71$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.36 | 496 | 32.3%160 W · 336 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb478…ac0abacked Struff | 30c | 138.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.34 | 360 | 47.2%170 W · 190 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70a1…978abacked Moutet | 58c | 127.49$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.49 | 884 | 46.8%414 W · 470 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc36a…be63backed Struff | 44c | 119.81$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.72 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…06c9backed Struff | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 260 | 45%117 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb9…4734backed Moutet | 58c | 88$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.96 | 119 | 43.7%52 W · 67 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Moutet | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 251 | 52.6%132 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347a…83e3backed Moutet | 57c | 82.46$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 313 | 39.9%125 W · 188 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x681d…4cbfbacked Moutet | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -13%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ea…ed2ebacked Moutet | 58c | 67$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.14 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6674…865ebacked Struff | 29c | 59.45$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6b…7b61backed Moutet | 52c | 59.17$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7256…30c9backed Moutet | 58c | 50.27$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.11 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee7…12c5backed Struff | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe233…14a3backed Struff | 46c | 43.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 383 | 56.9%218 W · 165 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05ec…7158backed Struff | 49c | 40.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52a4…52f7backed Moutet | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +4.8wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c88…8570backed Struff | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 66.7%8 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab58…b07dbacked Struff | 45c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a4…333bbacked Moutet | 75c | 26.4$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Moutet | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.32 | 499 | 55.1%275 W · 224 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba4f…7ecebacked Struff | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x91aa…c606backed Moutet | 69c | 22.55$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 71cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.