Euroleague · resolved market
Manresa vs. CB Murcia
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb837c4052b54974cf23ad794fd36d74b5a18be43200c9a82c10da46b73460718
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- CB Murciaof Manresa, CB Murcia
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Euroleagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,447
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,447 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Euroleague is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Euroleague | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked CB Murcia | 75c | 1,407$1,057 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.2 | 316 | 51.6%163 W · 153 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6f…7135backed Manresa | 57c | 1,148$651 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$650.69 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked CB Murcia | 43c | 912.02$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$519.85 | 352 | 34.7%122 W · 230 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4924…f328backed Manresa | 39c | 708.63$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Manresa | 25c | 342.4$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.89 | 542 | 51.5%279 W · 263 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed CB Murcia | 59c | 225.98$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.11 | 99 | 46.5%46 W · 53 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed CB Murcia | 78c | 202.18$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.12 | 104 | 51.9%54 W · 50 L | +7.3wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…1f3dbacked CB Murcia | 45c | 195.56$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.56 | 107 | 36.4%39 W · 68 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Manresa | 33c | 183.84$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.19 | 269 | 35.3%95 W · 174 L | -10.9wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9775…ed41backed CB Murcia | 50c | 117.5$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.83 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…983fbacked CB Murcia | 70c | 115$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.5 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.28per pick | 42cpaid | +89.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca81…f2abbacked Manresa | 41c | 109.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +52.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7a…899bbacked Manresa | 29c | 87.95$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 209 | 36.4%76 W · 133 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ab0…ddd0backed CB Murcia | 65c | 81$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa24d…38b2backed Manresa | 36c | 78.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.26 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -2.7wins | -0.15per pick | 37cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Manresa | 44c | 73.65$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.54 | 314 | 46.2%145 W · 169 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71ac…5fd6backed CB Murcia | 57c | 55.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.08 | 72 | 47.2%34 W · 38 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…ccd5backed CB Murcia | 56c | 49.35$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.71 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed CB Murcia | 45c | 43.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.8 | 86 | 11.6%10 W · 76 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94bb…c320backed Manresa | 25c | 41.22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 66 | 63.6%42 W · 24 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Manresa | 44c | 36.49$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.91 | 181 | 44.2%80 W · 101 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Manresa | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 370 | 52.7%195 W · 175 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Manresa | 42c | 29.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 63 | 63.5%40 W · 23 L | +7.5wins | +0.12per pick | 52cpaid | +10%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x07dd…0876backed Manresa | 46c | 24.01$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -11%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Euroleague and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.