TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Movies · resolved market

Will 'Kiss The Sky' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Song?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$3,645
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$3,787

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,645 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Movies
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x477a…2d8ebacked No60c581.26$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.53826.3%10 W · 28 L+1.2wins+0.03per pick23cpaid-49.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9353…cdbebacked Yes40c500$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2002433.3%8 W · 16 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+51.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes36c264$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.8823751.9%123 W · 114 L+16.9wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+6.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xeb88…0e56backed No60c218.49$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.242227.3%6 W · 16 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick32cpaid+24.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x04dc…2387backed Yes42c211.35$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.4512539.2%49 W · 76 L+2.9wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+10.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes39c209.37$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.987033.3%290 W · 580 L-77.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-37.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x80eb…5bfcbacked No65c208.08$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.08366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x577c…7dd1backed Yes37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$741526.7%4 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-19.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b7a…4817backed No59c140$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.83348.5%16 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0e9a…bc84backed Yes43c139.53$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3ce3…b625backed No59c135.37$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$561540%6 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-36.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No65c100$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3567232%215 W · 457 L+14.4wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-30%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9c4…a0b3backed No75c100$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.9757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick68cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x64c6…a070backed Yes42c89.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.16230.6%19 W · 43 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec40…fce5backed No59c55$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.55988.9%8 W · 1 L+3.6wins+0.40per pick49cpaid+79.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1747…3b00backed No60c54.78$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.913855.3%21 W · 17 L+5.0wins+0.13per pick42cpaid+27.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe880…de2dbacked Yes38c53$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.141850%9 W · 9 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+20.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed No63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.19441.5%39 W · 55 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-0.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x805a…0635backed No62c20$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.65532.7%18 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid+5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5d7a…b5f7backed No57c19.53$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.4683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.38per pick45cpaid+92.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x03ed…c077backed No59c19.44$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.977448.6%36 W · 38 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.