Movies · resolved market
Will 'Kiss The Sky' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Song?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb8778a30553627a6d3dbb326bc1f767bde531b6ac1ca77f91d9f8f13c745a8eb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,645
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,787
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,645 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 60c | 581.26$349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.5 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Yes | 40c | 500$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 36c | 264$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.88 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed No | 60c | 218.49$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.24 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04dc…2387backed Yes | 42c | 211.35$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.45 | 125 | 39.2%49 W · 76 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 209.37$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.9 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x80eb…5bfcbacked No | 65c | 208.08$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.08 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x577c…7dd1backed Yes | 37c | 200$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7a…4817backed No | 59c | 140$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.8 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e9a…bc84backed Yes | 43c | 139.53$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3ce3…b625backed No | 59c | 135.37$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c4…a0b3backed No | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.9 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 68cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64c6…a070backed Yes | 42c | 89.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.1 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec40…fce5backed No | 59c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.40per pick | 49cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1747…3b00backed No | 60c | 54.78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.91 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +5.0wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Yes | 38c | 53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x805a…0635backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 55 | 32.7%18 W · 37 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d7a…b5f7backed No | 57c | 19.53$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 45cpaid | +92.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 59c | 19.44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +4.3wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'Kiss The Sky' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Song?this page
- Will 'Beautiful That Way' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Song?No won
- Will 'Compress / Repress' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Song?No won
- Will 'El Mal' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Song?Yes won
- Will 'Forbidden Road' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Song?No won
- Will 'Mi Camino' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Song?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.