Movies · resolved market
Will 'El Mal' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Song?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x16838fff6d46ce8dc1267a6ef195f6032b2cca20e30cd3f98f8d81b184a19d6e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,102
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,030
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,102 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 38c | 2,233$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,376.7 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62d2…9eb7backed Yes | 35c | 2,000$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,292.33 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked No | 55c | 420$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229 | 237 | 51.9%123 W · 114 L | +16.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f9…35febacked Yes | 49c | 409.23$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.23 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.24per pick | 53cpaid | -48.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 43c | 366.4$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.46 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbff1…7523backed Yes | 43c | 220$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbdfa…0ef9backed Yes | 42c | 216.67$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +140.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a80…a5c6backed Yes | 42c | 215.52$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.52 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28a4…7351backed Yes | 42c | 211.9$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x546c…35cabacked Yes | 50c | 201.45$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…e69dbacked Yes | 48c | 200$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea79…a9ccbacked Yes | 47c | 124$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.72 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac56…5b67backed Yes | 47c | 121.44$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.22 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.17per pick | 21cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x477a…2d8ebacked No | 56c | 115.93$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 38 | 26.3%10 W · 28 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -49.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 59c | 109$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.27 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed No | 63c | 100$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +45.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x86e3…ad70backed Yes | 63c | 100$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 39c | 99.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.56 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6bcc…f8b2backed Yes | 37c | 94.59$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.59 | 157 | 39.5%62 W · 95 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b50…6c55backed Yes | 42c | 78$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.24 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…170cbacked Yes | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.8 | 21 | 71.4%15 W · 6 L | +3.7wins | +0.18per pick | 54cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed No | 62c | 66.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 94 | 41.5%39 W · 55 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 66c | 60$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.3 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | +2.9wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +21.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xeb88…0e56backed No | 47c | 46.43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.88 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.27 | 38 | 68.4%26 W · 12 L | +6.4wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfdfd…97f5backed Yes | 60c | 28.4$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd970…3e65backed No | 65c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.25 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.23per pick | 37cpaid | -60.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9012…3a71backed No | 61c | 20.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will 'El Mal' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Song?this page
- Will 'Beautiful That Way' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Song?No won
- Will 'Compress / Repress' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Song?No won
- Will 'Forbidden Road' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Song?No won
- Will 'Kiss The Sky' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Song?No won
- Will 'Mi Camino' win the Golden Globe for Best Original Song?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.